I think the way Bethesda is going, the time of the Empire is over and each country in Tamriel will be independent eventually. I've noticed that the over time the Empire has been losing territory and weakening. Only Cyrodil, High Rock and Skyrim remain part of the Empire. If Ulfric did win then it won't be long before High Rock will be wanting it's independence as well.
There are two big guys at the moment: the Empire and the Dominion. Choosing independence means you stand alone against the Thalmor. It is like general Tullius says: the Empire is what is keeping the Dominion out of Skyrim. It is the treaty that is a banner against the Thalmor invading the province. If you step out of the Empire, you step out of the treaty. No peace for you. The Thalmor can just invade your province, and I don't just mean Skyrim. The same thing goes for High Rock.
Nothing lasts forever, kingdoms rise and fall. The Redguards rejecting the White-Gold Concordat and successfully defending their borders for 5 years against the Dominion I believe was another inspiration of the Stormcloak Rebellion.
The Redguards refused to accept the White Gold Concordat. This was a threat to the Empire, who tried to stop a war they were obviously going to lose. They needed time to regain strength, and Hammerfell wasn't cooperating. Titus Mede II was forced to renounce Hammerfell as an Imperial province, and the province continued the fight.
"But the Redguards should not forget the great sacrifice of Imperial blood - Breton, Nord, and Cyrodilic - at the Battle of the Red Ring that weakened the Dominion enough to allow the eventual Second Treaty of Stros M'kai in 4E 180 and the withdrawal of Aldmeri forces from Hammerfell" - The Great War (book)
I wonder how long the Redguards can keep fighting against a Dominion that is growing more powerful every single day. One province can't possibly defend itself forever against something as big as the Aldmeri Dominion.
And the fact that the Redguards were able to do this, doesn't mean everyone is. According to that logic every province would be at the same strength. But I understand that the Stormcloaks found this inspirational.
And makes one truly believe that the a Dominion was just as weak and exhausted as the Empire was after the Imperial City was retaken. The Empire was weak when you started the game forcing them to have to recruit locally.
The Empire wasn't weak when you started the game. The moment you arrive at Helgen, there are also Legion forces standing at the Aldmeri Dominion's border, ready for the 2nd round. But yes, right after retaking the Imperial City the Dominion indeed was in no shape to continue the war.
Besides even if the Empire ceases to exist what makes you think each country in Tamriel still won't work together to confront the common threat that the Dominion poses to all?
Because
politics. The reason why Imperial provinces fight alongside each other, is because each one of them is part of the Empire. They are bound by treaties and laws that make them one strong faction. Would you, if you were Hammerfell, give aid to Skyrim if you need every single soldier to defend your own borders? You can barely keep your own province safe, let alone another province. You have to understand independent provinces aren't bound by anything at all. They are not part of a bigger faction or organization. They have no obligation whatsoever to help you out.
It would be foolish. A free and independent Skyrim would not have to face the Dominion alone, they not the only ones the Dominion wants to conquer.
Agreed. Hence why we have to stick together.
Also if you win Ulfric will then turn his attention towards strengthening Skyrim and preparing for the next great fight.
Like you said before: an independent Skyrim shouldn't face the Dominion alone - yet that is most likely going to happen. What is the Stormcloak rebellion going to do against the Thalmor? And how did the Stormcloak strengthen Skyrim? They have been thinning out the population with their Civil War against the Legion. Thousands of men (Skyrim does not have a 1000 NPC's because that would be impossible to make, but you have to see this in perspective) died for that. An army force that was preparing to kick back against the Dominion had to fight the Stormcloaks too, which kept them from focusing for the full 100% on the Thalmor.
Skyrim will lead the world in that fight and I believe other countries will follow their lead since only Skyrim had the nerve to stand up and fight for their freedom.
No. Skyrim would not, like you yourself said, be the only independent province. Hammerfell is one, for instance. And there is no reason why other provinces would help you - unless you create a treaty or faction to unite all the independent provinces. But then you lose your independence too.
Uniting against the Dominion and independence are very contradicting. It is one or the other, for you can't have both.
A Stormcloak victory doesn't automatically spell doom for Skyrim as one might think.
You never know 100% what is going to happen. Things are either likely or unlikely to happen. An independent Skyrim, who largely depends on the Empire for food sources (independence means no food supply), doesn't stand a chance against the Dominion. You would be largely dependent on how helpful other provinces are going to be. They are not obligated to help you, and barely have the men to defend their own borders.