Who realistically would win the Civil War?

[morguen87]

True, empires can and do expand, conquering everything in their path. But I dispute how well-supplied the imperial troops are up north. The Dominion is just as powerful as the Empire, and tensions are running high. Both probably have most of their troops massed and ready for another war.

This, the AD and the Empire can't risk over extending their troops for fear of being counter attacked by the other when they're weakest. And Skyrim isn't a provence like Cyrodiil, it doesn't offer a ton in terms of strategic military advantage. The risk v reward isn't there...

It'd be like the US sending all of our troops to Alaska and leaving the heart of America vulnerable.

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

Skyrim has the weather and environment on their side. Think Russia in WW2. An invading army couldn't maintain supplies to keep a standing army there.

It's hard to think of The Empire as an invading force, they have controlled the region for as long as there has been an empire. Their supplies are local, their troops are local. They control the best harbors and passage by road to Cyrodiil is clearly still under their control. The majority of soldiers fighting for the Empire are every drop as true a nord as the so called Sons and Daughters of Skyrim, The Stormcloaks.

And while the Empire has had thirty years to rebuild, how many troops can it actually send up north? That question isn't so easy to answer, but I'm thinking that a large commitment of troops in skyrim would spark another invasion. Most of the Empire's forces probably have to be stationed down south on constant standby.

Don't forget that tensions with the Altmeri Dominion are high and many feel another war is inevitable.

Well that's the real sticky-wicket, isn't it.

Things have not been all smiles and daffodils for The Dominion. Everything has not gone their way. The impromptu sacking of The Imperial City came at a terrible cost for the Altmer. They won the city, but they could not hold it indefinitely. Nor did they manage to capture The Emperor, who broke free of the city with a legion and managed to negotiate a surrender instead of submit to capture. The great war was nearly as costly for the mer as it was for the men.

The fighting then ended for The Empire. The Aldmeri Dominion, however, has been fighting a near constant war with the stubbornly entrenched former province of Hammerfel. It was the rule of southern Hammerfel that was the original goal of The Dominion, after all. The strike on Cyrodiil was planned as a feint to draw Legions from Hammerfel, but as the Dominion's armies neared the Imperial City with no resistance they went all the way and sacked it.

The White Gold Concordant saw that The Dominion was awarded what they wished, the lower half of Hammerfel. However the Redguards, renowned warriors and self-proclaimed greatest swordsmen in Tamriel refused to cooperate. They succeeded from The Empire and to this day continue to fight The Dominion for the lower city-states of Hammerfel. All things considered, they're doing quite well for themselves, too.

Now that's a long-winded way of saying that The Dominion has its own problems, at the moment. And while they do ultimately covet The Imperial Heartland, they may not have the will or manpower to make it theirs. Border strength with Dominion territories is important, but probably not the sole deciding factor in military movement within The Empire.

 

[DarkEastwood]

Factions are up in the Original Post. The rest should be up sometime tomorrow.

 

[Mr1cammando]

Empire. The stormcloaks dont have the military might to take Skyrim. And even if they did, it would not turn out well.

 

[Lady Redpool the Unlifer]

Alright, simply because I feel it's necessary, I'm going to attempt to banish most arguments before I share my personal opinion. Most arguments are based on:
Aldmeri Dominion's involvement
imperial reinforcements/stormcloak military strength
Local support
I'm discounting both weather and supplies as both have been satisfyingly disproved.
If you speak with Tullius he says something along the lines of him not getting many reinforcements due to the legion needing their troops in Cyrodil. Also the stormcloaks military strength is significant enough to be a threat. True, the empire has the numbers advantage but not by a whole lot when speaking in terms of an army.
Local support in most cities is leaned towards whichever faction is in control at the time with the exception of Whiterun which is effectively split and Markarth which actually shows a surprising preference towards the stormcloaks.
The Aldmeri Dominion's involvement is something of a wild card. They want to see that the war continues, however no one can truly be sure of how they would respond to certain scenarios.

This, the AD and the Empire can't risk over extending their troops for fear of being counter attacked by the other when they're weakest. And Skyrim isn't a provence like Cyrodiil, it doesn't offer a ton in terms of strategic military advantage. The risk v reward isn't there...

It'd be like the US sending all of our troops to Alaska and leaving the heart of America vulnerable.

I must say that while that WOULD be solid reasoning, Skyrim is actually VERY important to the empire. If the empire lost Skyrim, They would only have Daggerfall and Cyrodil, separated by two independent nations. Being split like this would eventually result in Daggerfall becoming independent and leaving Cyrodil on it's own, benefiting the Aldmeri Dominion greatly.

And finally, the argument that Ulfric would have had his head chopped off in Helgen:
Honestly, this part of the game is all messed up anyways. Darkwater crossing close to the border: wrong; Plus what would he even be doing out there? Has anyone seen him leave the palace before the battle for Solitude? This was put in the game by Bethesda to expose the player to the war early on and otherwise makes no sense realistically.

All that being said: The war wouldn't end. The Imperials would likely take control of Dawnstar and winterhold and after a very bloody battle and feud in Whiterun their advantages would mean the Imperials take the city. Continuing their march they would take Riften without a struggle, Maven would stage her own Coup and hand the city to them, taking advantage of the war rather than allowing it to harm her business. The Imperials would then march on Windhelm and stop, The remaining stormcloak army would have superior defensive advantages and cause enough damage to the Imperial army that by the time they reached the city they would only be able to lay siege to the city, not take it.
I know that this goes against my previous argument, but this is where the Dominion gets involved. They would ensure that Windhelm was properly supplied in order to hold against the siege and the Imperial army would eventually be weakened and forced to retreat. The Stormcloaks would then be able to easily retake Dawnstar, Winterhold and take Morthal as they are not very easy to defend and would likely take Markarth simply because they would have local support. I'm talking about the people, not the frosworn. The people fear the Forsworn and would likely welcome their one time "saviour" plus the silver blood's support. With the rest of Skyrim cut off from Solitude they could easily take Falkreath as it's very hard to defend and again Riften would be handed over, so long as Maven stayed Jarl which she likely would. Whiterun would be surrounded and would simply surrender. Jarl Balgruf, while he despises Ulfric and does not believe his cause, has no true loyalty to the empire and cares more for his people than for the war. Solitude would be besieged and would be able to hold out easily due to effectively being able to resupply by sea. The end is either that the Thalmor throw themselves in and this cycle repeats almost endlessly, or the Thalmor see the advantage of cutting off Cyrodil from Daggerfall and that supplies would be wasted on holding Solitude.

That took alot to say but realistically, without a miracle or chance/fate's role, this would be the result. I hate that I've come to this conclusion because I support the Empire, but that is just the logical eventuality.

 

[wizkid1696]

The Stormcloaks would probably take a similar approach to the Continental Army in the American Revolution. There goal would be to make the price of occupation to high, by guerrilla warfare, ambushes, destruction of trade routes etc.

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

It's hard to compare the tactics of The Stormcloaks to those used by General Washington's colonial armies against King George. The Empire is not transporting manpower and supplies across a distant sea, many months and thousands of miles away. They are deeply entrenched in Skyrim, with secure and uncontested land trade routs directly to the province of Cyrodiil that shares a huge southern border with Skyrim.

Additionally, their legions are comprised of local nords. Their supplies are provided by Solitude and its many towns, farms and steads. What they can not grow or supply locally they can import. The East Empire Company, is a global shipping concern that can quickly deliver men, supplies and arms from any province of The Empire. Control of Solitude also gives The Empire uncontested access to the only deep-water port and harbor in all of Skyrim.

In addition to Solitude, The Empire can count on Whiterun's support. The game proves that ultimately Jarl Bulgrif will side with The Empire. There is no scenario in the game where the Stormcloaks do not attempt to sack Whiterun. Whiterun and Solitude are the largest and most important centers of trade (and thus, coin, and thus power) in all of Skyrim. They sit in the best and most fertile lands in an otherwise barren and frozen province. Control of those city-states basically ensures an Imperial victory.

There's a lot at stake here for The Empire. As stated above, losing Skyrim effectively bisects The Empire from its last remaining province of High Rock. The Legion will lean everything it has on The Stormcloaks. They have not yet begun to fight. Even the defeat of General Tullius means little. There are other generals and fresh legions that will contest any victory Ulfric can win.

The combination of mobility, local supplies and man power with global trade and the close proximity to Cyrodiil, the seat of Imperial Power makes this less like the American Revolutionary War and more like Caesar's conquest of Gaul. Which I believe was an intentional move on the part of the writers.

Then again, it was the tribes of Gaul that eventually sacked Rome, many years later.

 

[Necromis]

Ok, time for me to chime in. In the end the Stormcloaks will win. Even though I root for the Empire. Two of the largest strongholds the Empire have, markarth and solitude, don't have to be taken to win, they can be sieged and kept from supplying. Remember based on the map the port of solitude, and the East Empire company are outside the walls of solitude and thus you can't control a port that you can't defend. So by simply sieging these two strongholds you starve them, or smoke them out. Secondy, remember this point many have made, the Empire's army is full of nords. How many are loyal and how many are infiltrators? Any occupying force has the downside of any war and the locals will make it bloody on you and you are not in your home country. Look at the US in Afganistan currently, and most of that population wants the US's help. Look at the small countries that have broken off from Russia. To win Ulfric doesn't have to control skyrim he just has to make it too costly to stay. Tullis has said he has no support coming from home. Daggerfall can still be reached and supported by boat so a land route is not necessary. So it might be bloody and prolonged but reality is the local population will win out.

 

[nordicowboy]

Stormcloaks. Because Chuck Norris hates elves. /thread








ATTN: To everyone that left your humor at home...this is a joke (see below in case you are unfamiliar)

Joke - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[bulbaquil]

1. Given the stipulations mentioned by the OP, the initial response would be "nothing stops Ulfric's head being chopped off = Empire wins"; however, the Thalmor dossier on Ulfric implies that the Thalmor might have interfered with the execution if Alduin hadn't gotten to doing so beforehand. The Thalmor benefit from having the war continue as long as possible; allowing Ulfric to be killed is counterproductive to this.

2. Yes, Cyrodiil shares a huge southern border with Skyrim, but much of that southern border is impassable mountain. If the Stormcloaks take Falkreath and maintain the Rift, they do not really have to keep that large a garrison at the few passes to ensure no support from Cyrodiil comes through by land.

3. It would be rather easy for Riften and Markarth to switch sides; the Black-Briars/Silver-Bloods could easily either stage a coup and/or help out any invading forces on their side.

4. The Thalmor probably benefit from Balgruuf's neutrality and this is probably why Heimskr is allowed to preach Talos so openly. They would not want to risk driving Balgruuf into the Stormcloak camp in spite of his misgivings about Ulfric. (This may also be why the Shrine of Talos is still around in Markarth - if they tried to shut it down it might drive the Silver-Bloods to stage such a coup.)

5. Indications are largely that Skyrim's Legion is on its own and that sending any further troops from Cyrodiil risks weakening Cyrodiil's border with the Aldmeri Dominion. Yes, there are other Imperial legions, but sending them makes it more likely that the Dominion will renew hostilities with Cyrodiil, and most of Cyrodiil's major cities are in its south. Odds are, nobody is coming from Cyrodiil.

6. As Necromis pointed out, it would be relatively easy for the Stormcloaks to launch a starve-'em-out siege on Markarth or Solitude. If they did so on Markarth, a full Silver-Blood takeover is likely. It is not so easy for the Empire to launch a starvation siege on Windhelm because of the way its port is set up.

7. On the other hand, if the Stormcloaks got to the point where they're doing too well in the war, the Thalmor might withdraw or even switch their covert support.

I honestly think that, absent the Dragonborn, dragons, Thieves Guild, and Dark Brotherhood, it's probably pretty close to 50/50 contingent on a handful of things we don't know:

A. How many spies are there on either side?

B. How likely are the Silver-Bloods/Black-Briars to engineer a coup of Markarth/Riften?

C. Who wins the Battle of Whiterun?

D. How easy would it be for Imperial forces to get through a mountain pass occupied by Stormcloaks?

Add dragons and who wins probably depends at least in part on which side gets attacked harder (e.g. in "Bear of Skyrim", I had the Stormcloak attack on Whiterun made easier because a dragon had attacked less than two weeks prior).

A robust Thieves Guild probably benefits the Empire, as it's de-facto run by Maven Black-Briar.

A questline-complete Dark Brotherhood probably benefits the Stormcloaks, as now you have the uncertainty of an interregnum in Cyrodiil on top of all this.

 

[Hacksaw]

Lots of good points on both sides, but I think the Forsworn deserve more credit as a wild card than they're getting. The Empire came close to recognizing them in an official capacity before the Great War started; the Forsworn had ruled themselves for many years without incident (or undue aggression to their neighbors).

If General Tullius could make a deal with the Forsworn, it would effectively give Markarth and the entire countryside of the Reach to the Empire without having to commit many troops.

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

Lots of good points on both sides, but I think the Forsworn deserve more credit as a wild card than they're getting. The Empire came close to recognizing them in an official capacity before the Great War started; the Forsworn had ruled themselves for many years without incident (or undue aggression to their neighbors).

If General Tullius could make a deal with the Forsworn, it would effectively give Markarth and the entire countryside of the Reach to the Empire without having to commit many troops.

The Foresworn would undoubtedly demand custody of Markarth in any deal they strike with The Empire. This would displace many thousands of loyal imperial nords and further strain the loyalties of the local nordic legions. It would also take the highly productive silver mines of Markarth and place them in the dubious control of The Foresworn, possibly costing the empire a lucrative source of capital.

Even General Tullius, as inept in local nord customs and politics as he is, would recognize this as a difficult area. I'm not sure he even has the authority to broker an official alliance with the Foresworn. I think an alliance with the Foresworn would cost the empire more than they're prepared to pay, but it would be amazing if they could broker an alliance on acceptable terms ( Terms that leave Markarth in control of the nords.)

 

[GimnliTheNord]

I Lean towards the Empire, they got strong People and Tons of people to help them, and Cyrodiil Which is One of the Biggest Continents on the Elder Scrolls Planet,


But Ulfric does have Dragon words

Hmmm

 

[Dagmar]

Skyrim has the weather and environment on their side. Think Russia in WW2. An invading army couldn't maintain supplies to keep a standing army there.

True, empires can and do expand, conquering everything in their path. But I dispute how well-supplied the imperial troops are up north.

These statements require you to completely ignore that this is a civil war. Saying the Imperial Legion has any disadvantage or the Stormcloaks an advantage is like saying the Union had a disadvantage or the Confederacy had an advantage in the United States Civil War. It simply doesn't hold water. The Stormcloaks are reliant on drawing on the resources of the Holds they control and whatever they can get through trade in Dawnstar and Riften, and the Imperial Legion likewise draws on the resources of the Holds it controls and trading through Solitude and Whiterun. The Imperial Legion is composed largely out of Nords. There's zero advantage to the Stormcloaks by virtue of their being native to Skyrim.

 

[Omega Dragon]

Even if Ulfric Stormcloak was killed, that wouldn't necessarily suppress the Rebellion. But unless the Imperials lost Whiterun (the single-most strategic city in Skyrim), I doubt they'd lose.

What can you potentially get from claiming Whiterun that you won't otherwise have?

The answer to that is multifold: either side would potentially gain an army of werewolves dubbed "The Companions" (esp. in the Stormcloaks' place IMO), an economic boost/surplus, a legendary Blacksmith (again, esp. with the Stormcloaks IMO), AND the quintessential "heart" of Skyrim; on the other hand, losing Whiterun would potentially mean the loss of economic trade, an economical recession, and losing their respective Whiterun-based faction. (I'm saying this as a bigger fan of the Stormcloaks than of the Imperials.)

How about...no one wins? That's what the Thalmor have been trying to accomplish this entire time. Had Alduin not attacked Helgen, the Thalmor agents present there would have found a way to preserve Ulfric's life. Perhaps that was even what Elenwen was discussing with Tullius in the opening cutscene.

I imagine the war going on for years, decades perhaps. Or maybe it turns into an on and off and seemingly unending conflict like the Hundred Years War. Eventually, the resources of both sides are stretched too far. No one's left to work the fields, provide food or fill common jobs that need doing (this is already the case in Mixwater Mill). Farms are reclaimed by nature and famine takes its toll. Season Unending marches on, throwing Skyrim into a dark age with its relentless stalemate.

Mhm, I think this is a rather likely answer.

I Lean towards the Empire, they got strong People and Tons of people to help them, and Cyrodiil Which is One of the Biggest Continents on the Elder Scrolls Planet,


But Ulfric does have Dragon words

Hmmm

Except that Ulfric's mouth is muffled. So unless he isn't executed at all, that voice becomes useless.

 

[bulbaquil]

Lots of good points on both sides, but I think the Forsworn deserve more credit as a wild card than they're getting. The Empire came close to recognizing them in an official capacity before the Great War started; the Forsworn had ruled themselves for many years without incident (or undue aggression to their neighbors).

If General Tullius could make a deal with the Forsworn, it would effectively give Markarth and the entire countryside of the Reach to the Empire without having to commit many troops.

The Foresworn would undoubtedly demand custody of Markarth in any deal they strike with The Empire. This would displace many thousands of loyal imperial nords and further strain the loyalties of the local nordic legions. It would also take the highly productive silver mines of Markarth and place them in the dubious control of The Foresworn, possibly costing the empire a lucrative source of capital.

Even General Tullius, as inept in local nord customs and politics as he is, would recognize this as a difficult area. I'm not sure he even has the authority to broker an official alliance with the Foresworn. I think an alliance with the Foresworn would cost the empire more than they're prepared to pay, but it would be amazing if they could broker an alliance on acceptable terms ( Terms that leave Markarth in control of the nords.)

This is a fair point, and it also raises the question: How much of the Forsworn behavior, if any, is being manipulated by the Silver-Bloods? Are Madanach and the Forsworn really Thonar's puppets, as Thonar claims they are, and if so, to what extent?

Not to mention, who would Tullius be negotiating with - especially if their king Madanach is still in Cidhna Mine? In addition, while it may have been Ulfric and the first Stormcloaks who committed the Markarth Incident, they were still Legionnaires at the time (albeit acting out of official capacity, most likely), there at Jarl Igmund's request. It's entirely possible the Forsworn are as soured towards the Empire as they are to Ulfric.

Even if Ulfric Stormcloak was killed, that wouldn't necessarily suppress the Rebellion. But unless the Imperials lost Whiterun (the single-most strategic city in Skyrim), I doubt they'd lose.

What can you potentially get from claiming Whiterun that you won't otherwise have?

The answer to that is multifold: either side would potentially gain an army of werewolves dubbed "The Companions" (esp. in the Stormcloaks' place IMO), an economic boost/surplus, a legendary Blacksmith (again, esp. with the Stormcloaks IMO), AND the quintessential "heart" of Skyrim; on the other hand, losing Whiterun would potentially mean the loss of economic trade, an economical recession, and losing their respective Whiterun-based faction. (I'm saying this as a bigger fan of the Stormcloaks than of the Imperials.)

Exactly - and similarly, killing General Tullius doesn't necessarily mean the Empire loses either. Whiterun is crucial for the reasons you've stated (though the Companions would be neutral and irrelevant either way) - a major trade and transport hub and quite possibly either the largest or second-largest city in Skyrim (after Solitude, if Solitude's the largest). There's a reason the Stormcloaks want it first. They get it and the obvious next stop is as in the game - Falkreath, to sever land ties with Cyrodiil.

 

[Dagmar]

In addition, while it may have been Ulfric and the first Stormcloaks who committed the Markarth Incident, they were still Legionnaires at the time (albeit acting out of official capacity, most likely), there at Jarl Igmund's request.

They were not Legionnaires. They were a Nord militia formed by Ulfric (as stated in the book The Bear of Markarth). They are in fact the predecessors of what would ultimately become the Stormcloaks so if you want to talk about against whom the Forsworn might be soured.......

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

This is a fair point, and it also raises the question: How much of the Forsworn behavior, if any, is being manipulated by the Silver-Bloods? Are Madanach and the Forsworn really Thonar's puppets, as Thonar claims they are, and if so, to what extent?

Not to mention, who would Tullius be negotiating with - especially if their king Madanach is still in Cidhna Mine?

The game makes it clear that for some time after the defeat at Markarth and his capture by the nords, Madanach was indeed under control of the Silver-blood family. He spent years playing the part of the obedient servant, and in doing so increased his freedoms within prison.

However, as the years passed the Foresworn ranks eventually recovered to a point where his influence over them had gotten out of hand. What was once a useful tool suddenly became a dangerous enemy.

As for negotiations, who could say. The General may demand that Madanach be freed and brought before him. The Foresworn have a chain of command outside of the mine, as well. They would probably present Tullius with Madanach's second in command or even a go-between like Nepos The Nose and play him off as their supreme commander while Madanach pulls the strings from his cell.

 

[Omega Dragon]

Exactly - and similarly, killing General Tullius doesn't necessarily mean the Empire loses either. Whiterun is crucial for the reasons you've stated (though the Companions would be neutral and irrelevant either way) - a major trade and transport hub and quite possibly either the largest or second-largest city in Skyrim (after Solitude, if Solitude's the largest). There's a reason the Stormcloaks want it first. They get it and the obvious next stop is as in the game - Falkreath, to sever land ties with Cyrodiil.

While the Companions seem neutral, look at their structure. Even not under the assumption of the "Circle" being werewolves, they still can train your soldiers well enough. Then just imagine if one or another side found out the Circle was a group of werewolves that could freely turn anyone into a werewolf, harness it and you've found yourself an army of werewolves (well I am assuming that both sides would be smart enough to do such if they found out as opposed to crucifying everyone ever accused of being a werewolf).

 

[Dagmar]

Then just imagine if one or another side found out the Circle was a group of werewolves that could freely turn anyone into a werewolf, harness it and you've found yourself an army of werewolves (well I am assuming that both sides would be smart enough to do such if they found out as opposed to crucifying everyone ever accused of being a werewolf).

In Skyrim, being a Lycan is considered to be a crime on par with murder (you incur the same bounty if you are witnessed transforming into Beast form). I don't think either side is going to be embracing the Circle if they find out they're Werewolves. I also don't think Nords will exactly be rushing to volunteer to become Werewolves for the same reason, along with the fact that they'll be denied passage to Sovngarde if they do.