Who realistically would win the Civil War?

[DarkEastwood]

Before I begin writing my little essay on the info I've gathered from the game, let me get a few things clear....

- Please disregard all of the Dragonborns actions, as well as the entire Dragon invasion. This is involving who would win if the war continued without anything involving the Main Quest occured.

- I'm disregarding anything involving the 'Seasons Unending' quest.

- Disregard all ideology you have on each side. This isn't a 'which one has the more clear and moral goals, as well as who deserves Skyrim' thread. This is to discuss who would win the Civil War.

- Disregard the Dark Brotherhood

Spoiler: Dark Brotherhood Spoilers

quest(s) that deal with assassinating the emperor

Alright, let me get started!

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[h2]Territory[/h2]

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[h2]Imperial[/h2]

Solitude - An extremely heavily fortified city, decorated with high walls and a secret passage into one of the watchtowers. The exterior has two layers of guard towers, making it very difficult for any army ti make it through without taking heavy casualties. At the even further exterior, there's the East Empire Trading Company docks. These are very useful for the Empire, allowing for trade along the North coast. This provides Imperial soldiers with a nice increase in supplies, as well as building a mavy to take the other two cities on the Northern coast. The city is dwelling high above the water. This helps keep soldiers very far from their main Palace, with the only way into it being to go straight through the city. The city also houses many citizens and soldiers to keep the city even more secure.

Markarth - The city is home to many citizens, and a decent amount if soldiers. The terrain outside of Markarth is very hard to navigate through due to its rugged, mountain landscape as well as the large and aggressive Forsworn presence. Getting enough the Stormcloak troops to infiltrate the city eould be challenge enough. The outside of the city is an group of fortifications, heading uphill toward the gate. So getting to the gate would be very difficult unless the invaders had an overwhelming amount of troops. The Palace itself, is quite fortified due to its very rocky and maze-y structure, so taking the entire city would be rather difficult. The entire city has a great amount of turns and twists and the city is leveled uphill, making the invaders have a dreadful time making their way through the city without taking very heavy casualties. Plus, the guards have the advantage of the giant surplus of Silver and mines in general. This allows them tofir more soldiers, thus having a larger defensive force.

Falkreath - The city is completely on level with itself, giving the guards a hard time keeping the gates free from invaders. The city is also far away from Solitude and Markarth, leaving it short in reinforcements. They're also really close to the Cyrodiil-Skyrim border, leaving them to be exposed to Cyrodiil, giving direct Imperial reinforcements. The area around the city is wooded and houses many dangerous creatures, making it difficult to transport troops to invade the city. The city seems to be a bit short on guards and fortifications, making it even harder to defend the city.

Morthal - Basically the same case as Falkreath in terms of city layout and guard population, but in even worse shape. Although it is closer to Solitude and Markarth, giving it a good source of reinforcements. The wildlife is somewhat dangerous, but nothing overwhelming.

Whterun* - Although Whiterun is not considered to be sided with the Empire, the city accept all Imperial help while also refusing cooperation with the Stormcloaks. It being in the middle of the whole province, it gets exposed to lots of trade and troop transport. It lies on a plain, so it is very easy to siege. But luckily for the city, they are armed with a strong guard force as well as a nicely fortified front gate. The people of the city are pretty much split twoard each side of the war, so a small civil war within the city isn't impossible.

[h2]Stormcloaks[/h2]

Windhelm - The main city of the Stormcloak resistence, the city is quite fortified. A long stone bridge extends across the river in front of the city, covered with small towers. Getting troops to the gates would require a giant force of soldiers, and even then they have ti deal with the city inside. The city itself is covered with turns, like Markarth, but the city seems rather level and thus removes the uphill advantage from the Stormcloaks. The guard and soldier population, although large, doesn't seem to match that of Solitude. The Palace is basically one big hall with a few rooms branching from it. The docks, leaves another entrance that could be reached by boat, putting the Stormcloaks at the disadvantage of having to face two fronts. But the entrance form the docks leads to a downhill section of the city, giving Stormcloaks an advantage against the invaders coming from the docks.

Riften - The city has some decent fortifications, and carries a good amount a guards. It lies on a flatland, relieving Stormcloaks of the uphill advantage. But the city is also completely surrounded by giant walls, leaving only three entrances open: the Player House exit, the Black Briar Meadery exit, and the main gate. The waters below would likely serve little purpose except to send out naval expeditions. The palace is a bit fortified, but it's nothing special. The land around the Rift is rather wooded, so it would be hard to send large batallions of soldiers to take over the city.

Dawnstar - This town has a big mouth exposed to the Sea of Ghosts, making it highly exposed to naval invasion. This does allow some naval expeditions toward Solitude, but the consequences outweigh the benefits. The guard force is of an average size, but mothing that could stop a large invasion from Solitude, even if they recieved soldier reinforcements. The land around it is prett harsh, frquently generating snow storms that could put a deal of effect of invading troops.

Winterhold - The landscape is pretty much the same as Dawnstars, except the area between the town and the water is covered by a huge cliff, likely unscalable. But the town really doesn't seem to have much fighting power, having no fortifications (excluding the college), barely any guards, and hardly any houses.

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[h2]Leaders[/h2]

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[h2]Imperials[/h2]

General Tullius - Tullius is a very strategic military leader, experienced and calm-headed. He knows how to win wars, prioritizing some places and exploiting the enemies weaknesses. He knows how to really do damage toward the enemy, while maintaining defense for himself. His problem is, him not being native. He's not the most respected member of the Empire, but his soldiers trust him. He's not the source of the Empire's ideas and political actions, for that is the Emperor's (and partly Elisif) job. He doesn't care for Skyrim as much as Ulfric, since it isn't his home.

Legate Rikke - She has a strong sense of patriotism, being a native of the land. She believe in everything she's ben fighting for, knowing the best for Skyrim is the Empires protection. She shows no mercy, and is very cautious.

[h2]Stormcloaks[/h2]

Ulfric Stormcloak - He is the head political and military power of the Stormcloaks. He is the source of all ideology of the them, making him a very valuable asset to the Stormcloaks. He has pretty good military tactics, although not as good as General Tullius. He is vert respected by his people, well the Nords that is. Almost all other races despise him, for he leads a resistence of racists. He is charismatic, but his true intentions for Skyrim are unknown. Some say he only created the Stormcloaks to become High King and to rule Skyrim. Others say he wants to rid of the Thalmor and bring peace to Skyrim, and maybe Tamriel. The problem with him is, if he is captured or dies, the Stormcloaks will likely crumble.

Legate Galmar - He is a true follower of Ulfric. He agrees with all his ideas and thoughts. He is, like Rikke, merciless and knows how to get the job done. He is battle hardened and can lead most battles to victory.

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[h2]Factions[/h2]

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College of Winterhold - They seem to be completely neutral. They appear to defend Winterhold though, so if Imperial troops sent an attack on Winterhold, it isn't impossible that they would fight back.

Companions - Under their current leadership, I believe they would also be completely neutral. A few might go out and join the Lehion or Stormcloaks, but the majority would mind their own business.

Dark Brotherhood - Likely neutral as well. If anything, I'd say they would bend toward the Empire since that would probably end up in Tamriel being Thalmor-free again, more so of a chance than if the Stormcloaks won. This would help them expand.

Thieves Guild - Likely Empire, since it would end up with Maven Black Briar as Jarl, who is one of their most important clients.

Forsworn - Likely Empire. During the Forsworns retaking of the Reach, the Empore almost established them as an independent land. Until Ulfric came and massacred most of them. So it would make sense that they would despise the Stormcloaks, and maybe help the Empire.

Silver Bloods - They root for the Stormcloaks, which really hurts the Empire seeing as they rest in Markarth. Having them in Markarth means the coty is under constant pressure from the Stormcloaks.

East Empire Trading Company - They work for the Empire and would help supply the army in Solitude.

Black Briars - Stormcloaks who pretty much help run Riften. They would just increase defense and security in Riften.

Battle-Born - An Imperial supporting clan in Whiterun. They're stronger than the Greymanes, a Stormcloak supporting clan, and would likely overwhelm their presence in Whiterun if their feud escelated into a battle.

Graymane - See Battleborn

Vigilant of Stendarr - Neither. They're totally independent and work towrad their own goals and purpose of eradicating daedra and abominations.

Thalmor - They would extend the war as long as they could, causing great damage to both sides. They would never fight for the Stormcloaks, but that doesn't mean they won't silently work against the Empire. They'd attack any Stormcloak at will if it's mecessary to prolong the war.

Bards College - They'd improve Imperial strength in Solitude, and would write songs of the Empires glory, spreading their fame across Skyrim.

Blood Horkers- They would likely do some damage on both sides in terms of naval battle. Nothing major though.

Clan Shatter Shield - They would add a few worthy troops to the Stormcloak army. Also, nothing major.

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[h2]Troops[/h2]

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Imperial - The troops are mainly local, making their army mostly Nord. This grants them extra effectiveness in the cold. They're armed with mostly swords and greatswords. They're armor is of a reddish color, making it a bit more camoflauged in the wooded lands down south (Falkreath and Riften). They know the land pretty well, since they're locals. Some of their troops are other races though, joining simply to oppose the Stormcloaks. They're fighting for their place in the land, rather than being bullied around by the Stormcloaks.

Stormcloaks - The troops are largely the same as the Imperials, since they're locals as well. They lack the foreign races though, being racist against most races. The main difference is the armor, being highly visible in the wooded areas, but being slightly more camoflauge in the snowy areas (Dawnstar, Winterhold, partially Windhelm).

 

[Iceman_mat]

Before I begin writing my little essay on the info I've gathered from the game, let me get a few things clear....

- Please disregard all of the Dragonborns actions, as well as the entire Dragon invasion. This is involving who would win if the war continued without anything involving the Main Quest occured.

- I'm disregarding anything involving the 'Seasons Unending' quest.

- Disregard all ideology you have on each side. This isn't a 'which one has the more clear and moral goals, as well as who deserves Skyrim' thread. This is to discuss who would win the Civil War.

- Disregard the Dark Brotherhood

The Imperials.

Ulfric would have died by having his head removed by general Tullius.

Essay - TL;DsomewhatR (glanced read it)

After killing Ulfric the Imperial army would have focused all attention on Windhelm to which Galmar would have done a last stand type of battle resulting in the loss of his life. The remaining Stormcloak army would have been scattered with the most loyal members doing raids on Imperial installations / villiages.

-Cheers

 

[DarkEastwood]

Let me specify: Ulfric wasn't captured. Yet. We don't know how exactly he got captured, so for all we know the Dragonborn could have stalled them long enough to be ambushed. So I would rather keep that aspect out. But that doesn't mean it's impossible that he would be captured again.

 

[Zatam Zar]

Let me specify: Ulfric wasn't captured. Yet. We don't know how exactly he got captured, so for all we know the Dragonborn could have stalled them long enough to be ambushed. So I would rather keep that aspect out. But that doesn't mean it's impossible that he would be captured again.

Well you know how they say, fool me once.......
I doubt he would be captured a second time.

 

[Neriad13]

How about...no one wins? That's what the Thalmor have been trying to accomplish this entire time. Had Alduin not attacked Helgen, the Thalmor agents present there would have found a way to preserve Ulfric's life. Perhaps that was even what Elenwen was discussing with Tullius in the opening cutscene.

I imagine the war going on for years, decades perhaps. Or maybe it turns into an on and off and seemingly unending conflict like the Hundred Years War. Eventually, the resources of both sides are stretched too far. No one's left to work the fields, provide food or fill common jobs that need doing (this is already the case in Mixwater Mill). Farms are reclaimed by nature and famine takes its toll. Season Unending marches on, throwing Skyrim into a dark age with its relentless stalemate.

 

[Hildolfr]

The Empire, most definitely. The Empire simply has more resources. Also consider this: if something were to happen to Ulfric, the movement would probably peter out. If something happened to Tullius, the Empire could simply send another general.

Of course, I agree with Neriad13, though. In all likelihood, the Thalmor would play a much bigger role if the war continued to drag on. The Empire would want to commit more resources to put an end to things while the Dominion would do whatever to prolong the conflict.

Also... in before real-world examples of World Super Power vs Tiny Nation. I know there are a plethora of historical examples, but there are thrice as many examples of the stronger nation completely dominating the smaller.

 

[Iceman_mat]

Your asking for a realistic response and throwing out a realistic fact. He got captured and was about to be executed. He was brought in by an Imperial batalion with the armies main general at its lead. It was a planned co-ordinated ambush to which the "Dragonborne" got caught in as well (take everyone and kill them).

However with that aside

I would still say the Imperials as if the "rebellion" (as seen by the empire) went on long enough, the elves would most likely have stepped in as Stormcloaks worship Talos and under their peace treaty that is not aloud any longer. The elves would not have seen the Stormcloaks as legitimate rules and more like heretics (which they did) and would have sent elven assasins (not the brotherhood) to take out Ulfric. If that had of failed, then would have used the worship of Talos as an excuse to get involved. Then you would have 2 armies vs the 1. Two of their cities are open to navel invasion which would have been used. The only thing going for him is Riften and winterhold (thiefs and wizards) however the populace of both is low and who is to say who they would of sided with.

 

[samgurl775]

The Empire most definitely.

 

[Xivia4]

The Empire.

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

The Empire would win, even in their defeat to the Dominion the Empire has the men resources and infrastructure to outlast The Stormcloaks, who have based themselves in the most frozen and remote part of Skyrim.

However, the Thamor would work behind the scenes to ensure the conflict is never conclusively ended. This so called revolution is just their proxy war on the Mede Empire.

 

[Hacksaw]

With the war against the Altmeri Dominion, the Empire is in ruins and probably can't spare any more soldiers than the ones already present. It's worth noting that a great many legionnaires in Skyrim are nords, indicating that the Empire didn't send a very large force from Cyrodiil or any other province.

Historical examples of occupation show that it takes a large force to subdue a determined local population -- especially one that is very warlike. Keeping a garrison in foreign land is a massive drain on resources, and it eventually leaves, allowing the local population to resume living as it had done pre-invasion.

According to the lore of the game, ideology is strong on both sides and the nord population is split down the middle between supporting the Empire and supporting the Stormcloaks. But, as it was pointed out, Ulfric and his followers are blatantly racist. Any non-nord residents would end up supporting the Empire, and this is probably what would tip the balance in a pitched battle. I doubt the orcs would organize and take sides, but natives of the Reach are a force to be reckoned with.

I could just imagine the Reach natives making a treaty with the Empire granting them self-rule in return for military support. There's even a book about the Reachmen coming close to official recognition before being brutally put down.

In summary, I think the Empire would win, although the fight would be long and costly for both sides. Just like the Thalmor want.

Just a couple of side notes:

1) Who's to say that the execution of Ulfric would cripple the Stormcloak rebellion? The ideology is so strong in this case that he would simply become a martyr for his cause. I'm a firm believer that leaders are a reflection of their people and that a new one would rise up.

2) Does anybody really believe that the Thalmor care weather humans worship Talos? The religious ban simply gave their agents free reign to hunt down the Blades (also known as the Order of Talos), who they considered a serious threat.

 

[DarkEastwood]

In reply to all those saying the Thalmor wouldn't let it end, I say it very well could. The Thalmor could only do so much before the Empire catches onto their schemes. I mean, sure if the Stormcloaks start to gain advantage the Thalmor could lend troops to regain land and thus prolonging the war. But ehat if the Emprie starts to win? And every form of espionage couldn't effect the outcome of a war.

And in reply to Iceman Matt, the Dragonborn was involved in the capture, and thus I exclude it. Simple as that.

 

[Thallik the Orc]

The Imperials would have won had it been an actual Civil War just by the large number of troops they had on their side. The Stormcloaks were nothing more than a rag-tag militia who had some luck in acquiring the admiration of Jarls and weaponry. Not to mention that Ulfric's ideology would have only been popular to the Nords of Skyrim, which in all actuality does not match the numbers the Empire had at it's disposal.

Still doesn't stop me from siding with the Stormcloaks on every playthrough though xD

 

[Hacksaw]

And in reply to Iceman Matt, the Dragonborn was involved in the capture, and thus I exclude it. Simple as that.

That's really stretching it. The capture was happening anyway and the dragonborn was just unlucky enough to get caught in the whole thing.

The Imperials would have won had it been an actual Civil War just by the large number of troops they had on their side. The Stormcloaks were nothing more than a rag-tag militia who had some luck in acquiring the admiration of Jarls and weaponry. Not to mention that Ulfric's ideology would have only been popular to the Nords of Skyrim, which in all actuality does not match the numbers the Empire had at it's disposal.

Still doesn't stop me from siding with the Stormcloaks on every playthrough though xD

The Stormcloaks have a smaller army than the Empire, but an army nonetheless. Windhelm is a large city with a respectable military at its command, and it can count on Dawnstar for a supply of iron and quicksilver.

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

The Legions in Skyrim are comprised largely of Nords because Skyrim has been a province of The Empire for many hundreds of years. They recruit and garrison locals into the military. This was a practice used by The Roman Empire on which Cyrodiilic Empire is based.

The presence of largely nordic forces does not denote a lack of manpower or support from the heartland. In fact, it could very well mean just the opposite; The Emperor and his generals have faith that the local legions are sufficient to quell the uprising and so have not deemed it necessary to send legions from other provinces.

Keep in mind that The White Gold Concordant was signed thirty years ago. The Empire has had three decades to lick its wounds, it is not in immediate danger of collapse.

 

[Hacksaw]

Its true, Skyrim was an Imperial province for hundreds of years. But the prohibition on Talos worship has put a split in the nord population, causing many of them to turn on the legion.

And while the Empire has had thirty years to rebuild, how many troops can it actually send up north? That question isn't so easy to answer, but I'm thinking that a large commitment of troops in skyrim would spark another invasion. Most of the Empire's forces probably have to be stationed down south on constant standby.

Don't forget that tensions with the Altmeri Dominion are high and many feel another war is inevitable.

 

[Osiris]

The Empire, They are way better supplied, trained..everything. Sure the Stormcloaks have homefield advantage here, but having that advantage didn't stop Tiber Septim from conquering all the other provinces...

 

[morguen87]

Skyrim has the weather and environment on their side. Think Russia in WW2. An invading army couldn't maintain supplies to keep a standing army there.

 

[Hacksaw]

The Empire, They are way better supplied, trained..everything. Sure the Stormcloaks have homefield advantage here, but having that advantage didn't stop Tiber Septim from conquering all the other provinces...

True, empires can and do expand, conquering everything in their path. But I dispute how well-supplied the imperial troops are up north. The Dominion is just as powerful as the Empire, and tensions are running high. Both probably have most of their troops massed and ready for another war.

 

[Osiris]

True, empires can and do expand, conquering everything in their path. But I dispute how well-supplied the imperial troops are up north. The Dominion is just as powerful as the Empire, and tensions are running high. Both probably have most of their troops massed and ready for another war.

Your right, I never thought of that. It would make sense that more Imperial troops are stationed in the Southern Provinces, closer to where the Dominion could send soldiers from the Isles.