alright
Imperials- Roman, because they have roman names and roman ideas and they practice roman warfare and even use roman armor.
Bretons- celtic, it dosent matter which tribe because most were fairly identical, the forsworn are the greatest piece of evidence to this theory, they even look like celts the male headdresses resemble the ancient antlered foes god they worshiped
Argonians- i agree with them being Aztec or mayan or some south American peoples, its a stretch but their homeland is a swamp jungle, and the way that their feathers grow in, it honestly looks like some of those old paintings of a south American priest or warriors feather headdress
Khajit- Indian or Chinese- cause of moon sugar, that stuff is clearly poppy seeds and skooma is opium, and they live out in a place in the FAR EAST called elswyer and are stealthy like a ninja, and have great hand to hand combat skills (martial arts)
nords- its obvious and needs no reasoning
orcs- an amalgam of steppe peoples, but mainly eastern European there is clear and strong influence of Slavic peoples in them as well as gothic peoples
bosmer- they are native americans,( it was hard to pick between celtic and native American but since the bosmer actually are not as aggressive as the Bretons i gave the more peaceful native American title to the bosmer)
altimer- hard to peg, very hard to peg, but Greek, Athenian greek to be precise because they are a very aristocratic as well as arrogant people, and by the time the game is in during skyrim the thalmor added a Macedonian/ idle age byzantine influence to the people.
Dwemer- this was actually a very easy people to peg, they are Sumerians, with Mesopotamian influences, in morrowind, you could actually see the ghosts of dead dwemers and they look exactly like a Mesopotamian and since they seemingly disappeared just like the Sumerians, leaving behind remnants of an extremely advanced society behind
dunmer- they are the ascetically like the dwemer although not nearly as advanced i would honestly call them the same as the dwemer, except a post civilization dwemer, much like post goldan age Egypt
Redgaurds- Bedouin, mainly because they are the closest to a middle eastern people that is in this game and since hammerfell is a desert kingdom full of tribes, or clans, who when united are a fierce fighting fore but wen disunited are not nearly as strong.