Welcome to the thread, I'll throw in my two cents. Mainly cause I enjoy a debate with someone who can see both sides. Though I'm Empire by personal choice.
The Thalmor were unable to operate freely and take whoever they wanted, it wasn't until the rebellion was there a crack down. The Thalmor needed evidence to make an arrest, which is how for over twenty years there weren't any issues of people being kidnapped for worshiping in secret. If you visit Markarth, the head of the Thalmor Justiciars asks you to break into someone's house to find evidence of Talos worship because the Empire supporting Jarl won't call for his arrest on speculation.
Thanks for the reply. I think I'm "neither" by personal choice, or "conflicted". I do think Tullius is a good, honorable man, and I do think he's got more clarity of thought than Ulfric, with the PTSD he's wading through.
Point of clarification, though, on the above quote: did the Thalmor literally do *nothing* prior to Ulfric's uprising, or were they allowed to detain, torture, and kill those whose Talos worship can be proven with evidence? Because there's an immense difference between the two, and if it's the latter I really can't discuss it in a completely Watsonian way.
"We didn't pay much attention to it when I was a boy - everyone still had their little shrine to Talos. But then Ulfric and his "Sons of Skyrim" started agitating about it, and sure enough the Emperor had to crack down."
I'm holding a reply to that quote until you clarify on my question, too. If literally nothing was ever done, fine. If nothing was done *without evidence*, I have to impeach Hadvar somewhat as a source.
The Thalmor are using the Civil War to conduct a large inquisition against the Nordic population. They do it to send supporters flocking towards Ulfric's banner, the Thalmor are gaining from the Civil War. They were in Helgen to try stop the execution and save Ulfric's life.
They provide indirect aid towards to the Stormcloaks, the Aldmeri Dominion seek to weaken the Empire, who are their sworn enemies and are against everything the Empire stands for.
http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Skyrim:Thalmor_Dossier:_Ulfric_Stormcloak
http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Skyrim:Thalmor_Dossier:_Ulfric_Stormcloak
Yes, but neither do they want a quick and decisive Stormcloak victory, such that the player can provide. That too is in the dossier.
The Empire and Thalmor are going to war, there is no doubt about it. The Imperial Army is already on the Dominion's borders and the Thalmor are preparing for a second round also.
Your lore knowledge is vastly superior to mine, as this is my first TES game and I'm frantically swotting up on the lore, so I'll ask for another point of clarification. How soon is this war likely to happen, and how likely is the Empire to win it?
The way I see it, both sides are making an implicit contract with the Dragonborn. Both contracts rest on future promises and neither are certainties-- a rational person can find reason to doubt both. By the end of the civil war questline the player is powerful and likely to understand their role in the world better than at the beginning (depending on how much of the main questline is played), so it comes down to which contract the Dragonborn feels they can best influence to come true. The Imperial contract is that if Skyrim just puts up with this Thalmor interference for a while longer, the Empire can amass the forces and win a war against the Dominion, after which the ban against Talos-worship will be rescinded. The uncertainty being how long before this war happens (until your above quote I would have said "and IF this war happens", since it doesn't seem clear from the questline that it absolutely will-- where can I find more information about the Empire's willingness to engage and capacity to engage, and does the DB know that?), and whether the Empire can actually win it. The Stormcloak contract is that, if a speedy victory is won by Ulfric, he can pull the country together well enough and quickly enough that it could actually matter against the Dominion. Additionally, 1) that Ulfric, bitter, damaged, and vengeful as he is, is capable of becoming a good king, and 2) is able, as king, to reach out to other parts of Tamriel with animus against the Thalmor and ally with them against the Dominion.
It's odd, with the Empire I thought "I believe you *want* to succeed, I'm just not sure you can" and with Ulfric I thought "I believe you *can* succeed, I'm just not sure you want to". I felt that my Dragonborn has a unique role to play in unifying Skyrim with either side, but I'm not sure I see my Imperial Dragonborns as doing more than simply being a cog in a wheel, while my Stormcloak Dragonborns speak truth to power and mediate between Ulfric and his people. I don't think the Stormcloak contract comes true without the player, and without the player being able to be that buffer. (I bet the majority of Stormcloak DBs are Nord true believers, too, the type IMO least likely to end up with an actually long-term-successful King Ulfric.)
When Ulfric understands the threat of Alduin he takes it seriously, so too does Tullius. I don't know about the end of the world, but this dragon situation has gotten out of hand. If this truce will help the Dragonborn here put an end to that menace, we both gain. Remember that, Ulfric.
Tullius is a good man, I just don't think he gets it-gets it. I don't think Tullius is contemptuous of Nords, but he's impatient and I don't think he imagines he'll be there long enough that he needs to culturally understand Nords-- which comes off as contempt. They both put bullets in their own feet in different ways. Ulfric can be detestable, and Tullius inflexible and exasperating. OTOH, Tullius literally goes to his grave trying to say "but you're helping them win!", he's professional to the very end, and I love Ulfric's wonder at the times he's living in. I wish my character could be part of a victory against the Dominion and then give them both what they actually *need* and send Tullius home and take Ulfric as my traveling companion, since for all that he's said to grasp at power, I've never been convinced that he actually bone-deep wants power, just that he thinks he's the only one capable of taking it "on behalf of Skyrim". Galmar believes in him more than he does, I think. I have no idea who I think should be High King, though Torygg sounds like a decent guy in retrospect even if his wife is useless.