Who realistically would win the Civil War?

[Omega Dragon]

Ulfric would be dead if

Spoiler

Alduin

didn't interfere. With Ulfirc Stormcloak dead the Stormcloaks would lose a great amount of morale and possibly become more disorganized. This would allow the Imperials to demolish the Stormcloaks.

We don't know if he'd have been dead or not without Alduin since the Thalmor may have been there to disrupt the whole thing.

That said, the rest is true, unfortunately.

 

[kingkole]

Everyone's missing a huge force in skyrim. The grey beards. Sure they say they want to stay secluded but what if they feel like they need to end the war? Who would they join? I think the imperials would be the logical choice. But then they do know ulfric cause he was one! And plus ulfric seems like the kind of guy to get the job done no matter what

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[Will Olmen]

Everyone's missing a huge force in skyrim. The grey beards. Sure they say they want to stay secluded but what if they feel like they need to end the war? Who would they join? I think the imperials would be the logical choice. But then they do know ulfric cause he was one! And plus ulfric seems like the kind of guy to get the job done no matter what

Ulfric has the ability to shout. He was not a greybeard. And the Greybeards would not involve themselves in the war for any reason. They are devout followers of the Way of the Voice. So devout that only ONE of them is even able to converse safely anymore. The others have given up the speech of mortals and devoted their voices entirely to the dragon tongue and all its power. They would defend themselves if attacked. But they are bound in belief to a life of non-aggression. If they took ANY steps to end the war it would be limited to ADVISING or offering council. Outside of that they would not engage in warfare.

And Ulfric is a barely contained psychopath. He murdered NORD women and children at Markath with just the tiniest pebble of manipulation by a Thalmor agent.

 

[Necromis]

Ok, Has anyone also thought that the forsworn would take the opportunity to take back the reach during the civil war? I mean the no one escapes quest shows you that the leader will get out regardless of the Dragon borns help.

 

[Tman2177]

In the "no one escapes cidhna mine" quest you either help him escape or kill him and take his key and escpe yourself. If you take the latter option, Thronir Silverblood will be waiting for you and thank you for avenging his family and give you the silverblood ring. If you help Madanach escape, the forsworn meet up with you before you exit the tunnel and give your gear back and give you the armor of the old gods. Then, as you exit the tunnel, they swarm markarth killing many people and guards.

 

[Valyn]

After the Stormcloaks win, the Thalmor sweep in and would wipe out everyone.

 

[RTSullivan-DragonBorn]

Great read, well thought out and written, one thing though don't these two contradict each other?

Thieves Guild - Likely Empire, since it would end up with Maven Black Briar as Jarl, who is one of their most important clients.

Black Briars - Stormcloaks who pretty much help run Riften. They would just increase defense and security in Riften.

The imperials would win, having the constant reinforcements from Cyrodiil would help them prevail.

 

[Iceman_mat]

Though Ulfrics death may cause martyr status, it would throw his forces into disarray. I get the feeling from playing the game (biased mabye) that all dicessions go through / come form him. If all dicessions come from this man / go through him, do I believe removing said man from an army would lead to a loss? yes. On the sole fact that you have a process in place that can not adapt to one of its main parts being removed. For an example it is like being in a gaming hunting group and your healer leaves without being able to find another said healer. True the people in the group may split off and continue hunting but the original group is now gone. I also know this can be used as an example of the Stormcloaks continuing

However

With the removal of Ulfric the hit and run tattics then become a Gurellia Tattic as mentioned before. Since most of the Skyrim populas is from a Nordish back round (yes there is diversity) these Gurellia Tattics may counter what the Stormcloaks are trying to do (bring more over to their cause) and send potential combatants over to the Empire side.

With Ulfrics death aside.

I will give that both sides can come by Calvary, Pikeman, archers & soldiers and general. Being formally Legion trained, i'm sure Ulfric will be able to come up with some way to achive such things. Mabye not to the number or the Empire but he can.

Taking out the elves, AD (not to fluent in that lore) and forsworn (for arguement sake) I would Still say Empire wins. The key things going against the Stormcloaks are what the general populas will hold against even in a drawn out fight.

They are for a Nord dominate Skyrim, essentially and blantently creating a two tier ruling system. Nords rule, all else follow. True you could arguee this is already in place but they way they are selling it is All Nords are first class citizen, everyone else is second, no matter what. It's kinda a play on Mutants in the Marvel universe, which is cool but look at how Mutants reacted in the Marvel Universe. Would a city in Skyrim, say Windhelm, become like Genosha should the Stormcloaks win the Civil war?.

He is trying to put himself on the Skyrim Throne. Instead of seeing this as a Liberation, the populas of Skyrim may see this as a power grab. Ulfric is serving his own interests, not the general populas. A quick search (take is as you will) found -

Pleas from Dunmer citizens often fall on deaf ears leading them to believe he has nothing but disdain for them. Some even claim Ulfric refuses to send aid to the Khajiit caravans and non-Nord towns that have been raided by bandits

Does this someone you think a general populas would want as a King? "Hey man we be dieing over here!", "Well you're not a nord so HAHAHA faq u!".

Why does this matter?

In a short fight, Empire takes it. They are using more organized tattics, deception in loosing fights then ambushing and having a greater coordination. In a drawn out fight it is the populas that I believe will decide it as War weariness sets in. True this is a Monarch setting but a King can not rule a populas that will not follow him. (E.G chessboard - only King piece)

Of course this is personal opinion. During my play through I did not join either faction as I did not like what they both preech but in a civil war without a Dragon Borune or Dragons - Empire wins.

-Cheers

 

[Iceman_mat]

sorry about bad spelling (half asleep)

 

[Darrell Goodliffe]

On the surface youd say the Empire but realistically its internally dying on its ass and they look vulnerable to defection if the Stormcloaks racked up a few victories....so id have to say the Stormcloaks with an outside chance for the Empire as a last hurrah....

 

[bulbaquil]

I think in order to answer this question fully, we have to make use of information we don't have:

1. What is the real racial makeup of Skyrim? (I don't mean "count up all the NPCs in the game", either.)

2. What fraction of Nords either (1) are themselves racist, (2) don't care about racism, (3) think securing Talos worship is more important than racism, or (4) fear what Ulfric would do to them if they didn't side with him?

3. How racist are the Stormcloaks, really?

4. How willing is the Emperor to prosecute the war, considering he only sent one legion to Skyrim in the first place? Moreover, how willing would he be to sacrifice the integrity of the border with the Aldmeri Dominion to fight a Skyrim that, if the Stormcloaks won, would still be quite willing to fight the Aldmeri Dominion?

5. How many spies does each side have?

6. How defensible are the entrance points into Cyrodiil from Skyrim? A huge southern border means nothing if the bulk of it is impassable mountains.

7. How long will the Thalmor maintain their covert support of the Stormcloaks, especially if the Stormcloaks get the upper hand in the war? If the Stormcloaks get the upper hand, the Thalmor withdraw support, and then the Stormcloaks start losing again, will the Thalmor resume support?

8. Who wins the battle of Whiterun? I've played it on the Imperial side (as well as the Stormcloak side), but have yet to kill off the invading Stormcloaks before they compromise the barricade and drawbridge - meaning they'd technically already be in the city and high-tailing it for Balgruuf; it's just that in the game as soon as you pick your side you're assured victory.

9. How defensible are Markarth, Solitude, and Windhelm against starve-'em-out sieges?

10. How liable are the Silver-Bloods/Black-Briars to stage a coup in their respective cities?

On the surface youd say the Empire but realistically its internally dying on its ass and they look vulnerable to defection if the Stormcloaks racked up a few victories....so id have to say the Stormcloaks with an outside chance for the Empire as a last hurrah....

11. To what extent is the Empire really dying? The entire Fourth Era has been characterized by the theme of Imperial fragmentation - first the Aldmeri Dominion, then Morrowind/Black Marsh, then Hammerfell. If Skyrim does secede, High Rock would likely not be that far off.

 

[Omega Dragon]

And Ulfric is a barely contained psychopath. He murdered NORD women and children at Markath with just the tiniest pebble of manipulation by a Thalmor agent.

One huge problem with this reasoning I just wanted to mention: these acts were committed in a time before there were any modern-day inventions of "war crimes" or the sort thereof and where treason is considered the highest crime (that ironically 'anyone' can be charged with, too). Only until the last century were things like "torture", "terrorism", "genocide", and the sort even remotely considered immoral during war on any 'legal' scale (not saying they are/aren't or never weren't immoral individually, mind you as there were always the people refusing to even defend themselves under the belief that even self-defense is wrong).

Plus, chances are the Imperials have done as much the same... which is the good thing about these games, there is no black and white choices, just like reality.

 

[Omega Dragon]

Though Ulfrics death may cause martyr status, it would throw his forces into disarray. I get the feeling from playing the game (biased mabye) that all dicessions go through / come form him. If all dicessions come from this man / go through him, do I believe removing said man from an army would lead to a loss? yes. On the sole fact that you have a process in place that can not adapt to one of its main parts being removed. For an example it is like being in a gaming hunting group and your healer leaves without being able to find another said healer. True the people in the group may split off and continue hunting but the original group is now gone. I also know this can be used as an example of the Stormcloaks continuing

However

With the removal of Ulfric the hit and run tattics then become a Gurellia Tattic as mentioned before. Since most of the Skyrim populas is from a Nordish back round (yes there is diversity) these Gurellia Tattics may counter what the Stormcloaks are trying to do (bring more over to their cause) and send potential combatants over to the Empire side.

With Ulfrics death aside.

Well that's another thing in itself.

Just years ago people believed we could defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but al Qaeda simply grew from what was once a centralized organization to a largely decentralized movement that is still working throughout the middle east after rumors spread in the middle east that Osama died (thanks to media outlets in places like Egypt and Saudi). The Stormcloaks could become heavily decentralized, so long as it is able to adapt.

But like I originally posted in this thread, Whiterun is the key to victory for either side and chances are without the Dragonborn, so long as Whiterun sides with the Imperials, I don't see the Stormcloaks realistically winning.

 

[Flint firestorm]

Has any one else noticed that the bar in the grey quarter has imperial armor upstairs? Maybe the dark elves are spies.

 

[Omega Dragon]

Has any one else noticed that the bar in the grey quarter has imperial armor upstairs? Maybe the dark elves are spies.

I'd say this should be its own thread firstly.

That said, I wouldn't bet on them not being spies. I don't trust any dark elf (even when I play as one).

 

[Jeremius]

or maybe one of them was an imperial soldier who retired...

 

[Kalin of High Rock]

The Dark Elves of the Grey Quarter have more dialog celebrating Ulfric's death than any other group. I wouldn't rule out one of them acting as an informant for The Empire, but a dark elf would make a poor spy when you're dealing with a group that almost exclusively works with Nords.

The Dark Elves in Windhelm are wretched and poor, and those are the sort of people that go beneath the notice of their societal "betters", they could report on troop movement, but without being able to infiltrate the Stormcloak's the intelligence they could provide would be minimal at best.

There's a thousand possible explanations for the armor in the corner club.

 

[Flint firestorm]

There is also a flag a sheild and imperial sword

 

[Iceman_mat]

Well that's another thing in itself.

Just years ago people believed we could defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but al Qaeda simply grew from what was once a centralized organization to a largely decentralized movement that is still working throughout the middle east after rumors spread in the middle east that Osama died (thanks to media outlets in places like Egypt and Saudi). The Stormcloaks could become heavily decentralized, so long as it is able to adapt.

But like I originally posted in this thread, Whiterun is the key to victory for either side and chances are without the Dragonborn, so long as Whiterun sides with the Imperials, I don't see the Stormcloaks realistically winning.

I understand what you're saying however a big difference this isn't an example like the US defeating Al Qaeda. I would say it is more like Al Qaeda attacking Al Qaeda. They could become decentralized but in doing so they would most likely have to move into Gurellia tattics to keep their army supported and fed. Doing so would turn the general populace against them (possibly)

Examples:

- Why do you raid my farm for your war? I care not of your war i'm a simple farmer
- Again my stores have been raided by those Stormcloaks causing me a loss, swords aren't made from tree's you know.

If it were say the eleves moving in on Skyrim then yes I could see what you are saying but this is a Civil war and a war of idea's, should Ulfric become decentralized I think it would be harder to sell himself as "the rightful king" instead of "just a rebel".

IMO of course.

-Cheers

 

[Omega Dragon]

I understand what you're saying however a big difference this isn't an example like the US defeating Al Qaeda. I would say it is more like Al Qaeda attacking Al Qaeda. They could become decentralized but in doing so they would most likely have to move into Gurellia tattics to keep their army supported and fed. Doing so would turn the general populace against them (possibly)

Examples:

- Why do you raid my farm for your war? I care not of your war i'm a simple farmer
- Again my stores have been raided by those Stormcloaks causing me a loss, swords aren't made from tree's you know.

If it were say the eleves moving in on Skyrim then yes I could see what you are saying but this is a Civil war and a war of idea's, should Ulfric become decentralized I think it would be harder to sell himself as "the rightful king" instead of "just a rebel".

IMO of course.

-Cheers

My only point of the analogy is that the Stormcloaks could become heavily decentralized IF they wanted to, just like any other group that's ever existed. There may or may not be a better analogy, though.