oooooooooooo I like dis. I've been thoroughly keeping up with the Ukrainian conflict since the beginning so I'll weigh in on some stuff.
Personally I don't think this conflict will be the one that sparks World War III, but it may lead to sequential events that do but I seriously doubt it. Atm, China is pretty silent (at least military-wise) on the issue and tbh I think if given the ultimatum they would choose to remain neutral. Fact is, they have so much invested into the United States and the west atm that they simply can't go to war with them. However, if they did choose to side with Russia this would be a whole new ballgame.
Fact is, Putin wants Crimea for that damn warm water port, Russia needs as many of those as possible. That being said, he's strong-arming the country under the guise that he's "liberating" Russian speakers in the region. If he controls Crimea, he has a very good hold of the black sea and with that a direct path into the Mediterranean. Its a strategic land grab for Crimea and to sway Ukraine away from the EU. He doesn't want NATO on his doorstep exactly how we don't want Russia on ours (see Cuban Missile Crisis) He's always wanted to restore the former Soviet Union in all its former glory and with the unrest in Ukraine, he has his chance. Putin is not stupid, I would say he's more cold and calculated. He knows what he can get away with and he knows how far he can push. Nobody wants this war, especially because Ukraine is not apart of either NATO or EU. America and the West are only taking this as an opportunity to denounce and shame Russia.
I'll also say that I don't support the current Ukrainian government. I personally believe that they are no better then former president Viktor Yanukovych because they are just as corrupt as he was. All of them have been brought up on criminal charges and have ties to criminal organizations. One of the first things they did in power was threaten nuclear arms, that to me discredits them greatly. They used Euromaidan as the opportune time to seize the power they've wanted. I really feel for the plight of the Ukrainians who basically know nothing but corruption in their government since their creation in the 90's and its clear that Euromaidan was just a lot of people becoming frustrated. That being said, there is no denying the dominate Russian minority in the country who care not for EU and who would rather have closer ties to Russia. This is evident in events happening right now, bordering very close on civil war (which I think is a very real possibility). First thing the new government has done was alienate the Russian population and thats just not right, especially considering the circumstances. This is why I think Viktor was better, he was the bridge between the two completely different demographics in the country. If they had forced Viktor into a change, where he embraced both the EU and Russia without choosing either side, I think it would've turned out better. (Its important to note that he was doing this, slowly, at the time of his impeachment.) It just looks like very nationalistic government leaders are in power right now but the country itself is torn in the middle.
I also see comparisons to the US in this thread. I do agree to some extent but what Russia is doing
is wrong regardless of what Washington has done. He's basically annexing Ukraine atm, piece by piece. Its true, US (and most of the West/NATO) has no leg to stand on when it comes to this. We tell them what they are doing is illegal yet we've been illegally occupying the middle east for a decade. Obama tells Putin you can't go around annexing countries yet America has been installing puppet democracies around the globe for 50 years which arguably yields the same results. Now with this referendum, at face value the West
has to accept it. We've allowed referendums for years, Quebec, Kosovo and most recently Scotland and Venice so why do we deem this one illegal? However, this is my own conclusion but Russia loves coercion and I refer to Chechnya. Chechnya is a country that went to war
twice with Russia over their independence. Basically Chechnya was taken forcibly by Russia in the late 1800s and have never truly felt apart of Russia. With the fall of the USSR they took their chance where the first war Russia obliterated them and the second invasion was started over terrorist attacks (hmm, sounds familiar?) and right now the situation is basically a lot of insurgency being dealt with (I just can't quite place where that sounds familiar). Anyways, they held a referendum not too long ago where an
astounding 96% ruled in favour of Russia, this includes the 40,000 Russian soldiers allowed to vote and excludes the high number of Chechen citizens who boycotted the ballot out of protest. This begs the question, how does a country who had the means and the motivation to go to
war, not too mention the some 300,000-500,000 (of a population around 1.5 million) that were directly involved in the fighting, vote almost unanimously for Russia? Doesn't quite add up and because of this, I think there was coercion involved. But in the words of wise Denzel, its not what you know, its what you can prove.
The so-called "self defence" squads in Eastern Ukraine look very similar to Russian soldiers, weird huh. He's occupied Crimea on technicalities of the original naval base treaty that was signed years ago. Russian troops were not allowed outside of the base yet they were. Russian troops momentarily held a village on the mainland for a day or two. He's put masks and unmarked uniforms on Russian troops, sent them in to Ukraine and has said "Oh, its a coincidence that those Ukrainian self defense squads look (uniform and military kit), talk, and take orders (there was a leaked call of Russians receiving orders from Moscow) from Russians." Its true that some of the Ukrainian navy had legitimately defected, however they did take military ships and hardware with them and Russia has not returned them. Some of the ships were also taken by force and the soldiers forced out while the Russian flag is raised. I also seen the APC defect story in here and I confirm that its true, some of them defected.
What do I personally think we should do? Leave Russia and Ukraine to do their thing and fortify the allies around it (Poland, Estonia etc). Until mass killings of civilians goes down, we should stay out of it. It seems like more of a internal Ukrainian problem (even so with a little help from Putin, but nothing Obama hasn't done before i.e Syria) than Russia invading anybody. If a war breaks out between Ukraine and pro-Russian forces or Russians themselves, I will guarantee you it it'll turn into a proxy war. The West don't want a war with a country like Russia, one of the biggest in the world. They are no war-torn Iraq and Putin is not so damn insane (Saddam Hussein pun yeye). Do I think we can beat him? Yes, times have changed since Napoleon and Hitler's failure of taking Russia which was not due to Russia's superiority. Both of them underestimated Russia, both of them were stretched thin and both their armies were ill-prepared for winter. Our militaries are much more advanced and much more prepared then either of these two and we'll be fighting
just Russia while Napoleon and Hitler were taking on the rest of the world at the same time. Our economies (specifically the US which arguably is the most important in global finance) will take a major hit. The only thing that changes the equation is China.
I also want to comment on the validity of the Russia Today article I seen and the opposition to CNN. While RT is good for
some things, typically when it comes to the West it is complete and utter propaganda. If you think CNN is fear-mongering and bias, RT is directly funded by Putin and the Kremlin and is basically his propaganda mouthpiece. Its pretty evident when you cross reference some of their articles with other news outlet sites. Its true, all media is bias to some degree but RT is the definition of bias ESPECIALLY during a time of increased hostilities between Russia and the West. I'll add to this and include a link to Reporters Without Borders World Index of freedom of the press. Note how Russia is 148 while America is 46. (While still nothing to brag about, you understand the scope of how bad RT can potentially be)
https://rsf.org/index2014/en-index2014.php
For anyone who is more interested check this link out here which keeps up to date with what's going on with articles from around the world.
http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/
Just my two cents on the issue.