Since it seems I am not able to post a link I will just quote some of the latest addition to an article on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The article is Russia: The cost of Empire goes up from The Strategy Page.
October 13, 2014: The fighting in Ukraine has left about 3,500 dead so far. About 25 percent of the dead have been Ukrainian soldiers and militia. About 30 percent were rebels and nearly ten percent were Russian soldiers. The rest were civilians. The death of so many Russian troops, and the attempt by the Russian government to hide the fact that they died in Ukraine, has caused a growing number of anti-government demonstrations and protests. About ten percent of those deaths occurred after the September 5th ceasefire agreement with Russia and the rebels continuing to attack.
While Russian aggression in Ukraine gets most of the headlines, there’s plenty of Russian misbehavior against other neighbors as well. Finland reports that Russian aircraft increasingly test Finnish air defenses and twice recently Russian warships have threatened a Finnish research vessel operating in international waters in the Baltic. The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) are receiving similar harassment, as well as Russian offers of a large discount on what they pay for Russian natural gas if they will leave NATO. None of the Baltic States sees this as a good deal and consider NATO their only real protection from Russian aggression. Some Baltic States leaders have been openly comparing Putin’s aggression to that of Stalin and Hitler before World War II. Russians get very upset at these comparisons, insisting that they are only seeking to regain territory that is really theirs’ and lost due to foreign conspiracies. At that point Russian logic involves plots by NATO and the United States which strike Westerners as absurd but appeal to a lot of Russians. That’s what makes Russia’s neighbors nervous.
Russia is being forced to depend on China for tech and cash it can no longer get from the West because of the growing sanctions. As much as Russian leaders loathe and fear NATO, many also resent being forced to grant China access to Russian markets, raw materials and military technology in payment for help coping with the sanctions. Russian leaders believe they can handle China and Chinese leaders believe their economic power will give them unprecedented control over Russia. Someone has miscalculated here and it is as yet unclear who. While China gains more raw materials and export markets along with improvements to its locally developed weapons, Russia is forced to halt its efforts to diversify its economy away from dependence on raw materials exports. The diversification depended on Western tech and investment. That has been halted for the moment and the Chinese can’t replace it. Many Russians see this as a bad decision and that helps fuel the growing popular opposition to the government.
The Russian leadership is divided about the ultimate cost of these border wars. The nationalists, led by president Putin, are willing to sacrifice to rebuild the empire. But many in the leadership see the cost as too high. The economy is being weakened, leading to a recession and lots of Russians, rich and poor, are going to feel the loss. Economic experts warn of long-term damage as Western governments and firms decide that Russia cannot be trusted and, even after the current crises, charge extra because of the perceived risks of dealing with Russians. This surcharge, and the distrust underlying it, will hurt the Russian economy for decades to come. Also damaging is the growing Chinese economic power inside Russia. Even many Russian nationalists fear this while other pro-empire Russians believe the Chinese are intrinsically weak and will fold under pressure. That’s not what the Chinese think and some Russians are well aware of that. A growing number of Russians believe they are being ruled by a dictator, who only pretends to respect democracy and will, if cornered, use force to remain in power. President Putin dismisses such accusations, while continuing to operate like they are all too true.