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Ukraine and Russia: are we heading for war?

Discussion in 'The Lobby' started by Anouck, Apr 15, 2014.

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Will this conflict lead to a war?

  1. Yes, but it will be like the Cold War.

    5 vote(s)
    20.8%
  2. Yes, this could lead to World War III.

    11 vote(s)
    45.8%
  3. Yes, but this will be a war between Russia and Ukraine. The UN will look the other way.

    4 vote(s)
    16.7%
  4. No, this 'conflict' is highly overrated.

    4 vote(s)
    16.7%
  1. The Honorable Gidian Diva of Sass

    The Honorable Gidian Diva of Sass Sahrot Vahlok Spaan. Bahnahgaar. Minion #88!
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    This creeping escalation is reminding me a bit of WW2, though at this point I do not believe it will come to that. One or two American Cruise liners were sunk by German U-boats and the US only raised hell for a day before forgetting about. Wasn't until something as extreme as Pearl Harbor that the sleeping giant got off it's as*. Of course, at that time, we weren't bound by the UN and a bunch of other treaties. I wouldn't be surprised if the US was a little hasty to jump into a conflict with President Obama's term getting closer to its end.
     
  2. Epic Keith

    Epic Keith By Ysmir you're going to FREEZE to death!

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    That's how the media works. They can hide the most notorious of action and paint others with it.

    I doubt the UN will do anything though, the UN is only good at taking action against weaker countries like Iraq, Syria etc. Not something like Russia
     
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  3. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    UN won't do anything about it, most countries wouldn't step on Russia's toes by peacekeeping in Ukraine (as much as they probably do need it). First off, Russia will 100% veto the decision to do so and so will their allies (China, Brazil, South Africa, etc.). UN can only sit back and denounce bad behaviour, much like Iraq. (US acted on their own, dragging NATO along with it. For what its worth, UN said the invasion was a complete violation of international law) The sanctions by Europe and US are enough to make Russia think twice, especially since they are really going to start taking effect if they keep it up longer.

    NATO legally can't do anything because Ukraine is not part of the organization, so all this talk about a NATO invasion is Ukraine and Russia talking plops to eachother. (If you happen to follow Eastern news sources).

    I wouldn't go as far as compare it to WW2, it was vastly different. I don't think Putin is anywhere near as bad as Hitler was. He's ballsy, but he knows his place. US on the other hand, would not even think of getting involved militarily in regards to this conflict. Russia may be weaker but its certainly no war-torn Iraq or poverty stricken Bosnia and Russia has a seriously intimidating friend south of the border. That would force Russia's hand to do something drastic which inturn would force USA to follow suit. Soon after NATO will follow and so will the BRIC countries (China, Brazil, South Africa) and then we've arrived at a Ukraine Missile Crisis where everyone's trying to save face.

    Its a really fluffed up situation all around, the Kiev government hasn't turned out to be the greatest alternative so far with their alienating half the country and aggressive "anti-terrorist" tactics like shelling residential areas filled with civilians. Who knows what will happen with this airliner now, probably nothing, which really is terrible for the families involved knowing they can't do plops about this.
     
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  4. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    If it were the Russian separatists though, Russia will partially be held responsible since a mere rebellion doesn't have the tools to bring down an airplane. They need rocket launchers for that, and they most likely got those from Russia who is still supplying them up until this day.
    Putin also said that 'this would not have happened if Ukraine would've stopped fighting'. In other words: 'if Ukraine just accepted that we were taking over their country, this wouldn't have happened'. The black box was also on it's way to Moscow for 'independent research'.

    I really thing the pro-Russian separatists did this, and then Russia will be partially held responsible. They supply the rebels and support them in many ways.
     
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  5. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    There were reports that the rebels captured a Ukrainian BUK Anti-Air missile systems during a raid recently, the same missile system suspected being used. Russian made, yeah, but if we're going to blame Russia for it we should be blaming US for ISIS in Iraq too. It would be a major escalation in the conflict, far more than just petty AK's and MANPADS.

    Is Putin supplying the rebels? Well we know there is a small number of Russians coming over the border to fight and we know there is also Chechens. Thing is, we don't know if they are there on their own free will or not but we do know Russia is at least supplying small-arms.

    Putin's gonna say some plops, but he isn't the one who started it. Eastern and Western Ukraine is like 2 different pieces of entirely different puzzles, East being very ethnically Russian. It just so happens the rebels are Russians who want to follow suit with Crimea.

    It was most certainly the separatists who did it and while Russia may be somewhat guilty for the escalation in the area, I'm not entirely sure I would put the blood on their hands for this. Those were not Russians troops that stupidly fired Anti-Air missiles at civilian airliners. I mean, the West did the same in Libya, Iraq and Syria yet we don't seem to hold anyone to blame for the plopsshows that those turned into.
     
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  6. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Putin has said that 'all of this would not have happened if Ukraine just stopped fighting'. In other words: 'this wouldn't have happened if Ukraine would let us take over their country'. He started the conflict when he took in Crimea and started to expend further from that point on. He is supplying the separatists.
    Now, I think the separatists did this without Russia being aware of it. This was probably not an order from the Russians. So technically speaking, Russia would not be behind it. But when an employee who works for a company makes a mistake, the manager is being held responsible too. Even when this manager had nothing to do with the incident. And I think that's going to happen to Russia as well.
    Also, not everyone can fire Anti-Air Missiles. It requires a special equipment that is usually not in the possession of a rebellion. It's very likely this is amongst the supplies given to the separatists, and it is very likely Russia was the one who gave it to them.
     
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  7. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Endowed Member

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    I love political conversations :D I have no idea whats going on but it's interesting to read nonetheless :p
     
  8. tx12001

    tx12001 I will not tolerate failure...

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    same here I have no Idea or and no Idea as to why it is even brought up on the Skyrim Forum's
     
  9. Epic Keith

    Epic Keith By Ysmir you're going to FREEZE to death!

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    Skyrim Forums offers more than just Skyrim talk. If it wouldn't this forum would have died a long time ago. People have more to discuss then just Skyrim.
     
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  10. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    I think this analogy maybe a little heavy handed to describe their relationship.

    Think of it like this, the US supplied the Free Syrian Army (and indirectly ISIS as well) yet I would in no way say that the US managed those rebels in any governing way. Neither would I say they are responsible for the atrocities they committed. Should they have been involved in the first place? No.

    Same with the rebels and the Russians. They are definitely attempting to prolong the engagement, not necessarily win though.



    True but the radar/targeting attachment vehicles are not needed to actually launch the missiles at things, only to launch them at things that you know what they are. They could've gotten it from Russia, but not sure even Russia is willing to risk and pay for such a system going across the border, its highly likely it was stolen from Kiev during raids.

    Its coming to light how the rebels had apparently "warned" all civilian jet liners to avoid the area because they would be shooting down everything in the air as well as Russian sources confirming that the rebels do not have radar/targeting systems with their BUKs. Both of these, as well as the stupidity of rebels, can easily explain why this jetliner was shot down.

    I follow Kiev media sources, Russian sources, Western sources and even the rebels themselves, and there was no official or unofficial warning that they would shoot down anything in their "airspace". In fact, the route that the jetliner was following, although over Donestk and even through the rebellion, was a moderately used route by several airliners.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/20/mh17-victims-train-torez-ukraine

    Total disrespect for the families, the non-communication, the blatant lies and whitewashing is doing the rebels no favours. Even if they claimed responsibility and did everything they could to rectify the situation (letting observers in, being compliant, giving the blackboxes to the international community instead, etc.) even if they did not pay restitution, this would go much better for them. If only they didn't entrench themselves in civilian communities, maybe then Kiev could end this.
     
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  11. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    I just feel like the UN so far has proven herself to be pretty useless. All they do, is handing out a warning. Then they hand out another one and another and another one. Then they hand out a last warning. And a second and third last warning after that. And then, after they tried 'everything', they tell the people how disappointed they are that the opposition did not want to cooperate.
    Maybe it's time to realize not everyone is polite. Not all conflicts can be solved with negotiation -although I really wished that would be the case. When you are the United Nations you don't ask a bunch of rebels for 'permission' to enter the crash site. You just go there. Send an army and show them it is going to happen our way. You don't even have to use violence. But some forces to keep the crash site and the investigators safe should send out a strong message.
    I can't stand how they demand cooperation and independent investigation but do nothing to enforce that when the rebels refuse to listen. I understand it's not that easy. But I also think it's safe to say it's silly the UN is 'powerless' because a group of peasants with guns don't let us do our work.

    EDIT:
    Once again, I know it's not that easy. I am not aiming at the exact thing that should be done - I am aiming at the type of approach that might be considered.
     
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  12. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    Well, UN on paper is great and its always been a relatively good platform for negotiation for countries around the world. Its also been pretty effective in the operations that it does operate in such as Bosnia, Africa and Asia. It has helped the world and I'll stand by it, regardless.

    That being said, all these operations were successful because everyone agreed (or at least was apathetic to the idea of peacekeeping) that something needed to be done. In these operations, none of the big players had much of an agenda there (indirectly, maybe so) because its smaller countries. So what happens when not everybody agrees on something?

    For what its worth, I think a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine would be for the best, but then the rebels would be allowed to flourish. Its a tradeoff. The way the UN is setup is nothing gets done unless all the big players agree with it, that includes everybody even the ones we may not particularly like. That's just how this has to be or else what's the point? It would really just be a façade for NATO so that everyone may think they have a say in the matter. If an army is sent in, its going to be mostly Western troops and we'll have another cold war on our hands.

    On another point, what say do we really have in this? We tell Russia that the Crimean referendum was illegal, we tell Russia not to supply the rebels to further their own agenda and we tell Russia not to spread propaganda about operations there.

    We let Kosovo separate with a referendum which was illegal, we've done more than our fair share of supplying rebels to further our agenda and we've certainly been spreading propaganda (intentional or not) in this conflict and previous conflicts. The world of politics is about integrity and saving face, and we've got neither. Both sides are hypocritical and both sides are not giving any ground.

    What I really think should happen is Ukraine should host a referendum for the East with tons of international observers closely monitoring it. From what I've gathered, the ones who support Russia in the East is very significant (from sources inside Ukraine), its not just the armed rebels. It sucks for Kiev and it sucks because Russia gets away with it, but it really is the only way to peacefully quell the violence.
     
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  13. Epic Keith

    Epic Keith By Ysmir you're going to FREEZE to death!

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    But will both sides agree to a referendum? Back in 1947 when Pakistan and India were given independence, they had to face an issue with the state of Kashmir. The leader wanted to join India but the majority of the population being Muslims wanted to join Pakistan. Pakistan wanted a referendum but India didn't.

    The UN did promise to hold one but its been 67 years and there hasn't been one.

    Maybe you might want to think about that again.
    Sent from my awesome Nokia Lumia 620 using Tapa$#!7
     
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  14. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    The thing the US did is nothing like what Putin did. After he took in the Crimea, his troops invaded the rest of Ukraine. Pro-Russian separatists pretty much took it from there, and he encouraged and supplied them. This is not helping people defending themselves - this is helping the invaders.
     
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  15. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    Crimea referendum aside (also he did not invade the rest of the country), its pretty much exactly what happened in Syria. Putin (Obama) aids a rebellion force (FSA) that destabilizes the region and weakens a friend of the opposition.(Assad). Both the Ukrainian rebels and the FSA have turned out to commit atrocities on their own accord, and in the case of Syria, ISIS is running around Iraq with M16's and Anti-Tank missiles with "made in the USA" stamped on the side from their fight in Syria.

    That being said, I don't agree with the armed rebellion at all, or at least the way its taken form. Most of the leaders are neo-nazi and they have total disregard for the civilian population. There are far more effective ways to get what they want through political channels than at the end of a barrel of a gun.

    Kiev doesn't help the situation at all, though, they alienated a major ethnic minority, they insult Russians in Ukraine, they threaten nuclear war, they knowingly shell civilian positions and in all honesty they aren't any less corrupt than the one before them.

    What we can't forget is that Eastern Ukraine is rooted in Russia and so there is a significant population that opposes the so EU-friendly west. It doesn't make sense, sure, but that's just how it is there, they have different values. Its the reason why Russia has aided them so successfully, look at how much of the Ukrainian army just straight up defected. Don't you think that if a significant number of Crimeans didn't actually agree with this referendum, we would've heard something, anything?
     
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  16. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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  17. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    At this point I have no idea what the right decision would be. I think we have to draw a line somewhere, but military involvement? I think that will only make matters worse. The Dutch have been rather passive so far. The reason why, as our Prime Minister explained, is because we need the sympathy of Ukraine/Russia too much right now. We still need to get the bodies back. And if we start pointing fingers and calling names, that might get even more complicated than it already is. We are currently too dependent on those two countries. After that, we can decide what's going to happen next.
    Is this the best way? I don't know. But if there would be a clear cut solution, this debate wasn't needed. There are so many issues going on right now. There's the gas supply from Gazprom, a president with strong ties to the Russian maffia, rebels, a civil airplane that got shot down... Military action will make one big mess in that country which will only make matters worse.
     
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  18. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    I think it is the best way to go about this. Open a war crimes case, collect the bodies and wait till this rebellion is quelled and the area is somewhat stabilized. At that point, Russia won't give 2 fluffs about what happens to the leaders of the rebellion and Kiev will water at the mouth at the chance of throwing these guys to the war crime tribunal.

    Gazprom is the only reason why the sanctions aren't hurting that much, Europe depends too much on Russian gas. They are squeezing around Putin his close circle of millionaire oligarchs, though. I think it will keep them out of the conflict directly.
     
  19. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Our Dutch minister, Frans Timmermans, gave a pretty emotional speech during the UN meeting. For the ones who are interested:
     
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  20. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    I also seen the Dutch Primister give his speech and he seemed quite agitated by it all. (even though it was in Dutch and I had no idea what he was saying)

    Off topic but is that Dutch minister British? lol
     

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