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Ukraine and Russia: are we heading for war?

Discussion in 'The Lobby' started by Anouck, Apr 15, 2014.

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Will this conflict lead to a war?

  1. Yes, but it will be like the Cold War.

    5 vote(s)
    20.8%
  2. Yes, this could lead to World War III.

    11 vote(s)
    45.8%
  3. Yes, but this will be a war between Russia and Ukraine. The UN will look the other way.

    4 vote(s)
    16.7%
  4. No, this 'conflict' is highly overrated.

    4 vote(s)
    16.7%
  1. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Haha, that's what I thought too.

    I don't think Putin likes the USA so much he is going to indirectly help them. Why risking the economical sanctions to help your enemy? I really don't think it is about the USA.
    I am fairly certain the USA has nothing to do with this. Putin cares about Putin.

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  2. Monolith

    Monolith The Progeny of Vikings

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    I was thinking the same thing; I instantly drew parallels between America's invasion of the Middle-east and Russia's invasion of the Crimean peninsula (and perhaps other parts of Ukraine later on). In fact, in one of his speeches Putin himself was wily enough to call out the hypocrisy of Obama's criticism of his actions. Objectively speaking Obama has killed far more people with drone strikes than Putin or his paramilitary cronies have so far in Ukraine, not to mention the body count and destruction of infrastructure that the Bush administration racked up in the Middle-east.

    I don't generally trust the major western media outlets because they all spew the same regurgitated, whitewashed garbage. That, and they're all owned by the same tight-knit elite who control the central banks and by that extension the world economy, so you're really getting a very narrow perspective on 'the truth' when you listen to what they tell you.

    I feel this is a huge game of chess, and it's not as black and white as Russia vs the West. What Putin is doing in Ukraine is wrong on all accounts, that cannot be debated. However, while I am not astute enough to see the big picture just yet, I'm absolutely certain there is more going on behind the curtains than we are let in on.. even in the US (with regards to this particular conflict). And even though Russia would have the conventional military power to steamroll pretty far into Europe if it put all its resources to the task, it would face fierce resistance and find itself utterly bankrupt in the process, so that isn't a scenario anyone should worry about. The western media outlets are sounding the alarms and raising hysteria needlessly, like we're all suddenly being threatened by a massive, looming behemoth that has arisen from slumber in the East and found itself hungry for conquest. That is hardly the case here. Even though this "behemoth" lives right next door to me, I for one won't lose any sleep over it.
     
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  3. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Endowed Member

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    Uh huh! That right there ^

    Where do we get most if not all our info from? The media that is controlled by money obsessed people who have never seen the 'real' world and distort the truth for their own gain.

    It is far too difficult to really know what is going on when the media is sooo bias! Granted, you get the media story from the Europeans, the Americans, the Chinese and the Russians (have we got any Russians on the forums?), you MAY be able to cut the crap away and see the picture slightly more clear. With the singular stream of media that most people are exposed to though, I think your better off putting your head in the sand...

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    There is definitely more going on behind the curtains. But Putin and Obama are not cooperating, I think. And definitely not in favor of the USA.

    Sent from my Huawei P6-UO6 using Tapapl***
     
  5. Deadpool.

    Deadpool. OG Forum member

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    After i finish flight school imma go to the RAF, if ww3 breaks out. Im sure theres a high chance because America and Russia are old enemies. Not sure who would win, im betting on the UN.. but on the other hand i could see why Russia would win beause they have the most nuclear warheads in the world.
     
  6. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    War doesn't automatically mean nukes are being used. Also, you miss the financial aspect. The West can't afford this war and has huge depths in China - an ally from Russia.

    Sent from my Huawei P6-UO6 using Tapapl***
     
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  7. AS88

    AS88 Well-Known Member
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    I'm just going to drop a name here and let you guys decide whether or not to research it or weigh in.

    Rothschild.
     
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  8. Harc

    Harc Big Hog

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    Nobody wants another war. Russia and the USA are titans of great strength, and what happens in algebra if you add a positive of the same number to a negative? They cancel eachother out. So let's see what happens and hopefully some idiot doesn't stomp on the balls of the world for their own necessity.
     
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  9. Deadpool.

    Deadpool. OG Forum member

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    hah good one, i can see what you are saying but i find that if Russia does not attack they would have to be very very very very closely monitored by the UN (the UN would probably make a base in crimea) and because of their hate for capitalisim they could resist, but if the UN does not do anything the Russians would be able to have their land and nothing much would really happen. This is all a game of land grab and conspiracy.
     
  10. Crooksin

    Crooksin Glue Sniffer

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    oooooooooooo I like dis. I've been thoroughly keeping up with the Ukrainian conflict since the beginning so I'll weigh in on some stuff.

    Personally I don't think this conflict will be the one that sparks World War III, but it may lead to sequential events that do but I seriously doubt it. Atm, China is pretty silent (at least military-wise) on the issue and tbh I think if given the ultimatum they would choose to remain neutral. Fact is, they have so much invested into the United States and the west atm that they simply can't go to war with them. However, if they did choose to side with Russia this would be a whole new ballgame.

    Fact is, Putin wants Crimea for that damn warm water port, Russia needs as many of those as possible. That being said, he's strong-arming the country under the guise that he's "liberating" Russian speakers in the region. If he controls Crimea, he has a very good hold of the black sea and with that a direct path into the Mediterranean. Its a strategic land grab for Crimea and to sway Ukraine away from the EU. He doesn't want NATO on his doorstep exactly how we don't want Russia on ours (see Cuban Missile Crisis) He's always wanted to restore the former Soviet Union in all its former glory and with the unrest in Ukraine, he has his chance. Putin is not stupid, I would say he's more cold and calculated. He knows what he can get away with and he knows how far he can push. Nobody wants this war, especially because Ukraine is not apart of either NATO or EU. America and the West are only taking this as an opportunity to denounce and shame Russia.

    I'll also say that I don't support the current Ukrainian government. I personally believe that they are no better then former president Viktor Yanukovych because they are just as corrupt as he was. All of them have been brought up on criminal charges and have ties to criminal organizations. One of the first things they did in power was threaten nuclear arms, that to me discredits them greatly. They used Euromaidan as the opportune time to seize the power they've wanted. I really feel for the plight of the Ukrainians who basically know nothing but corruption in their government since their creation in the 90's and its clear that Euromaidan was just a lot of people becoming frustrated. That being said, there is no denying the dominate Russian minority in the country who care not for EU and who would rather have closer ties to Russia. This is evident in events happening right now, bordering very close on civil war (which I think is a very real possibility). First thing the new government has done was alienate the Russian population and thats just not right, especially considering the circumstances. This is why I think Viktor was better, he was the bridge between the two completely different demographics in the country. If they had forced Viktor into a change, where he embraced both the EU and Russia without choosing either side, I think it would've turned out better. (Its important to note that he was doing this, slowly, at the time of his impeachment.) It just looks like very nationalistic government leaders are in power right now but the country itself is torn in the middle.

    I also see comparisons to the US in this thread. I do agree to some extent but what Russia is doing is wrong regardless of what Washington has done. He's basically annexing Ukraine atm, piece by piece. Its true, US (and most of the West/NATO) has no leg to stand on when it comes to this. We tell them what they are doing is illegal yet we've been illegally occupying the middle east for a decade. Obama tells Putin you can't go around annexing countries yet America has been installing puppet democracies around the globe for 50 years which arguably yields the same results. Now with this referendum, at face value the West has to accept it. We've allowed referendums for years, Quebec, Kosovo and most recently Scotland and Venice so why do we deem this one illegal? However, this is my own conclusion but Russia loves coercion and I refer to Chechnya. Chechnya is a country that went to war twice with Russia over their independence. Basically Chechnya was taken forcibly by Russia in the late 1800s and have never truly felt apart of Russia. With the fall of the USSR they took their chance where the first war Russia obliterated them and the second invasion was started over terrorist attacks (hmm, sounds familiar?) and right now the situation is basically a lot of insurgency being dealt with (I just can't quite place where that sounds familiar). Anyways, they held a referendum not too long ago where an astounding 96% ruled in favour of Russia, this includes the 40,000 Russian soldiers allowed to vote and excludes the high number of Chechen citizens who boycotted the ballot out of protest. This begs the question, how does a country who had the means and the motivation to go to war, not too mention the some 300,000-500,000 (of a population around 1.5 million) that were directly involved in the fighting, vote almost unanimously for Russia? Doesn't quite add up and because of this, I think there was coercion involved. But in the words of wise Denzel, its not what you know, its what you can prove.

    The so-called "self defence" squads in Eastern Ukraine look very similar to Russian soldiers, weird huh. He's occupied Crimea on technicalities of the original naval base treaty that was signed years ago. Russian troops were not allowed outside of the base yet they were. Russian troops momentarily held a village on the mainland for a day or two. He's put masks and unmarked uniforms on Russian troops, sent them in to Ukraine and has said "Oh, its a coincidence that those Ukrainian self defense squads look (uniform and military kit), talk, and take orders (there was a leaked call of Russians receiving orders from Moscow) from Russians." Its true that some of the Ukrainian navy had legitimately defected, however they did take military ships and hardware with them and Russia has not returned them. Some of the ships were also taken by force and the soldiers forced out while the Russian flag is raised. I also seen the APC defect story in here and I confirm that its true, some of them defected.

    What do I personally think we should do? Leave Russia and Ukraine to do their thing and fortify the allies around it (Poland, Estonia etc). Until mass killings of civilians goes down, we should stay out of it. It seems like more of a internal Ukrainian problem (even so with a little help from Putin, but nothing Obama hasn't done before i.e Syria) than Russia invading anybody. If a war breaks out between Ukraine and pro-Russian forces or Russians themselves, I will guarantee you it it'll turn into a proxy war. The West don't want a war with a country like Russia, one of the biggest in the world. They are no war-torn Iraq and Putin is not so damn insane (Saddam Hussein pun yeye). Do I think we can beat him? Yes, times have changed since Napoleon and Hitler's failure of taking Russia which was not due to Russia's superiority. Both of them underestimated Russia, both of them were stretched thin and both their armies were ill-prepared for winter. Our militaries are much more advanced and much more prepared then either of these two and we'll be fighting just Russia while Napoleon and Hitler were taking on the rest of the world at the same time. Our economies (specifically the US which arguably is the most important in global finance) will take a major hit. The only thing that changes the equation is China.

    I also want to comment on the validity of the Russia Today article I seen and the opposition to CNN. While RT is good for some things, typically when it comes to the West it is complete and utter propaganda. If you think CNN is fear-mongering and bias, RT is directly funded by Putin and the Kremlin and is basically his propaganda mouthpiece. Its pretty evident when you cross reference some of their articles with other news outlet sites. Its true, all media is bias to some degree but RT is the definition of bias ESPECIALLY during a time of increased hostilities between Russia and the West. I'll add to this and include a link to Reporters Without Borders World Index of freedom of the press. Note how Russia is 148 while America is 46. (While still nothing to brag about, you understand the scope of how bad RT can potentially be)

    https://rsf.org/index2014/en-index2014.php


    For anyone who is more interested check this link out here which keeps up to date with what's going on with articles from around the world.

    http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/


    Just my two cents on the issue.
     
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  11. DarkRaiden

    DarkRaiden Sir Reginald Von Bartlesby

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    To be quite honest, I don't think there'll be an actual war. It will most likely just turn out like the Cold War did, a lot of threatening, but no real action. Since the incident started, Russia has been looked at as the villain and I'm pretty sure that, even for being a massive country with a lot of power, they're scared to actually start something. Having the almost the whole world against you, in this technological age where there are weapons so advanced they don't have their advantage of their country's climate, would scare just about anyone.

    Except for 'Murica, they're just like 'Pew! Pew pew pew! Pewpewpewpewpew!' :p
     
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  12. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    Putin's not stupid, he knows no one would do anything about it and he was completely right.

    He achieves two things:

    1) Complete control of an important port.
    2) Demonstrates to the world how the US refuses to honor its promises it makes to supposed allies. Ukraine used to be one of the largest nuclear powers after the USSR breakup. The US (and allies though primarily the US) promised Ukraine if it gave up its weapons that the US would have Ukraine's back any time it was threatened. Not backing up promises with action is something my country's current administration is really good at, almost as good at lying to my face even though they know I know they are lying but still doing it. Russia is showing the region Mafia-style who runs the show.
     
  13. Seanu Reaves

    Seanu Reaves The Shogun of Gaming

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    Actually Russia is the main person who broke their promise, none of the nations that signed the "Budapest Memorandum on Secruity Assurances" actually promised to fight for Ukraine. All that the USA, Russia and UK agreed to was to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. As far as I know it has no Official Alliance stated, just that they can go to the UN Security Council if ever attacked. Part of the main issue is Russia is part of the security council.
    5 December 1994 at a formal ceremony in Budapest (known as the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances), may be summarized as follows: Russia, the UK and the USA undertake to respect Ukraine's borders in accordance with the principles of the 1975 CSCE Final Act, to abstain from the use or threat of force against Ukraine, not to place pressure on Ukraine by economic coercion, to assist Ukraine in the event of the use or threat of aggression against Ukraine, and to seek assistance from the UN Security Council in the event of aggression.
     
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  14. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    The fact Russia is part of the Security Council makes as much sense as when the UN had North Korea, Iran and Iraq (Saddam) as the head of the UN Human Rights Commitee.

    " assist Ukraine in the event of the use or threat of aggression against Ukraine" - That seems to be something more than just pointing to the UN and saying "go talk to them," or maybe it was just a "lie"
     
  15. Seanu Reaves

    Seanu Reaves The Shogun of Gaming

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    Now there is no need to explain why Russia is on the Security Council, or how fairness leads to silly occurrences.

    Or possibly a deeper story than anyone not directly involved in knows.
     
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  16. Medea

    Medea The Shadow Queen

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    When it comes to Russia, it's about the U.S. helping themselves. I think we knew Putin was going to do this a long time ago. We are just exploiting it so we can keep our economy going, which is based on keeping rich bastards rich. Obama had nothing to do with it. This is about the military and the corporations that support/supply the military starting media sensationalism and putting the scare back into american citizens, so they won't complain so much when we decide to build a new state-of-the-art stealth fighter jet instead of putting a meal on the table for thousands of poor families that need it.

    Start this video around 6:50:



    This was Eisenhower's farewell address. This wasn't coming from a "left-wing commie" either. Eisenhower was a republican, Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe, and a five-star general. It's almost scary how true his words have become.

    We won't go to war with Russia any time soon. I think we are more interested in keeping our assets in one piece, while waging war on third world nations and exploiting/waging economic wars with more powerful nations.
     
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  17. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Medea,
    correct me if I am wrong ( I don't know that much about US history):
    I thought Eisenhower - although a Republican - was not a very conservative president. Didn't the people vote for him because they hoped he'd go against Roosevelt's New Deal policy, which he didn't? Or am I mixing him up with Truman? :eek: eek
     
  18. Epic Keith

    Epic Keith By Ysmir you're going to FREEZE to death!

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    Using nukes is very risky especially if your enemy is equally armed.

    The main reason India and Pakistan haven't been to war in the last decade is because we both have nukes. Simple as that.
     
  19. Medea

    Medea The Shadow Queen

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    That's true. The republican party has changed over the years. I'm not sure about people voting for him because they thought he'd go against Roosevelt's policies, but we have seen a drastic change in the republican party.... even since Reagan. There is a more extreme element that is rearing it's head nowadays (like the Tea Party and Libertarians).

    In fact, the democrats have changed over the years too. You can go all the way back to the Civil War:

    Back when Lincoln was president, the North was made up mostly of liberal republicans, while the South was made up of conservative democrats. When you think about many of Lincoln's controversial (back in the day) policies, it's hard to see why so many republicans claim him as one of their own. It has just changed over time from era to era and president to president. New technologies, the World Wars, and the Civil Rights movement is what changed the political atmosphere the most.

    Teddy Roosevelt was a republican too, and he had policies that would make modern day republican's heads explode. He broke up the trusts and big companies during his presidency, ensuring that there would be no monopolies or corporations that got out-of-control. Actually, next to Franklin Roosevelt, Teddy Roosevelt is probably my favorite president. He was actually shot in the chest in an assassination attempt before one of his speeches. Instead of cancelling it, he went on to give the speech despite having a bullet in his chest. That's one tough s.o.b.

    Big Money and irresponsible media is what really changed us. It seems that we need a modern day Roosevelt (either one of them) more than ever right now, to come in and bitch slap the people who are in charge. It just got to a point where the corporations got so big, they could buy their political candidates and fund massive negative propaganda campaigns against their opponents. Now we have a bunch of corporate puppets in Washington, which emboldens the rich tycoons that bought them to get away with more and more.

    When it comes right down to it Anouck, it's american politics......It's hard to explain without wanting to smash your fist through your computer monitor.
     
  20. Sveinbjorn

    Sveinbjorn Skald

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    I am one who firmly believes that it is impossible to make an informed judgement on this situation... Unless you have direct access to files and are there mid crisis in person, there is no true way of knowing what is going on. Everything that we do know is shown to us by the media or some internet source that claims to have insider information, but each media system has a bias as does every internet user. I think there is a lot more going on that civilians world wide have no clue about and trying to decipher what's handed to us is a fruitless endeavor. To be honest the people have no say in what goes on anywhere, unless enough of them rise up against something, but violence leads to violence and yet again it will not be the outcome hoped for, it may be better in some respects but it will not be what everyone truly seeks.

    What better way to fool an entire group of people? Well instead of giving them the truth... we give them over a hundred seperate stories with slight tweaks and manipulations, so that if researched they will seem true but if you delve deep into it you find not all of the situation is. Then you have one story cater to the outcome of a subset of people, another story cater to anothers, a liberal story, a conservative story, the so called independent story, and so on and so forth. Then you have a mix match of stories none of which can be 100% verified so people choose what subconciously they want to happen. Then you have in fighting and civil unrest and arguments spewing out all over the internet and in bars and town halls and courts. All the while, the real story is nothing like what we have seen or read or heard and the people in power continue doing what they wish to do without the collective people having any true say.

    These people are smart, they and the generations before them have been in power for thousands of years... they have honed their craft. Every single situation and military conflicts benefits the government in all areas because it creates a need for the government, yes some may fall but thats the same way with groups that civilians form because its the nature of man.

    So to sum it up, yes I do believe that something is going to come out of this situation, but not because of what I specifically "know" to be happening, but because I know man, and how we react and where our priorities lie. Will it be a war? Of course, there is already a war going on... It may not spill onto our soils or into our homes.... but people are being shot and killed and beat down and interrogated and fear tactics are being employed, mind games being played, economical games are being played... it's a war whether we want to believe it or not. Just because a confirmed death toll hasn't popped onto our televisions or somebody has outright said the word war doen't mean anything. These situations happen too often and too close to each other anymore for this age and time to be considered peaceful by any means. Everywhere is at war, and I think we would be better off preparing ourselves and getting our affairs in order and not living in a reality where we turn a blind eye to what is happening, and pretend it doesn't effect us, and pretend we have the solution to these problems when we don't and man never will. Look at the thousands and thousands of years we have been on this planet... The great minds of today have the exact same questions the great minds of those in times past had and we are no closer to an answer, all we have done is given names to things that have already been there, and most of the time when we expirement and try to alter those things, it blows up in our faces. I mean look at what we as a people consider knowledge... discovery and history channel (which is what most americans believe to be a reputable and reliable source for information) shows nothing but ghost shoes and aliens shows all day... yeah that's our intelligence. We actually believe that the ancient people before us who came up with all these marvels, were smart enough to build these wonders and create all of these things, BUT somehow they were not smart enough to write down accurately what helped them do so. They wrote about spirits and angels among many other things because these civilizations felt that THAT was what they needed to preserve, not how they built some pyramid or how they moved some stones across a field. It's ludicrous. ... And when man does find something that is truly game changing what happens? We hide the information away make it classified and no one else can know it.

    This is a rant now, I am sorry... but you know my stance now at least lulz. I hope I didn't offend anyone... I get on these tirades sometimes, just skim over me and pay no attention if it's too bothersome lol, again sorry if anyone is offended, I wasn't talking about anyone here in particular... just mankind as a collective species :p
     
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