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Ukraine and Russia: are we heading for war?

Discussion in 'The Lobby' started by Anouck, Apr 15, 2014.

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Will this conflict lead to a war?

  1. Yes, but it will be like the Cold War.

    5 vote(s)
    20.8%
  2. Yes, this could lead to World War III.

    11 vote(s)
    45.8%
  3. Yes, but this will be a war between Russia and Ukraine. The UN will look the other way.

    4 vote(s)
    16.7%
  4. No, this 'conflict' is highly overrated.

    4 vote(s)
    16.7%
  1. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    A few weeks ago Putin showed off his weird sense of humor again. Out of nowhere he stationed troops in the Crimea area, which is a little region in the southern part of Ukraine. The international community was shocked, and the UN tried to bribe Putin into retreating his troops. But he refused.

    Now, a few weeks later, the world kind of accepted the Crimea is part of Russia again. But it doesn't stop there. Pro-Russian militia's are taking in land outside of the Crimea. Putin stated that, if Ukraine would fight back, he would send the military their way. but Ukraine is obviously not going to sit back and let this happen.

    Will this lead to a second Cold War? Or even WWIII? It's hard to imagine, but if Russia and Ukraine are going at war, the United Nations will have to step in. And that Russian-Ukrainian war is getting closer and closer. The Ukrainian government stated that, if the pro-Russian militia don't drop their weapons by tomorrow 8am local time, they will start fighting back. And that will be the sign for Putin to get his troops involved as well.
     
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  2. EpicVakarian

    EpicVakarian Calibration-Master General

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    Honestly, I don't know. Putin clearly has no quarrels with going against the UN, and I'm pretty sure he said something about having plans to take Finland as well. But then, after WW2, I can't imagine he'd be stupid enough to start a world war in an era where nuclear weapons are so abundant. If it does evolve into war, it'll be a Cold War; or at least, I hope it will be. I don't want to imagine the alternative.
     
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  3. FusRoDovah

    FusRoDovah Member

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    I don't think that a war will burst out, in this era I don't think that any war will happen, that's why I voted no by the way, I don't think the conflict is overrated, but I don't think that any war might happen, but if there will be some kind of war, it could develop into something like a Cold War I guess.I really hope humanity learned its lesson.
     
  4. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    I think Putin is either too stupid or too arrogant. But hey; his stupidity didn't work against him yet. Just look at what he did in the Crimea. He just stationed his troops there out of nowhere. How ridiculous is that? Very ridiculous, but it still worked. People were too flabbergasted to anticipate at what was going on, I think. This is a complete new level of stupid the rest of the world can't handle, haha.

    Russia has about twice the amount of citizens France has. So it's not the big country it sometimes seems to be. Sure, their geographical size is impressive - but the majority of the Russian territory is wasteland. Yet this country is still the 'big bad bully' that scares other countries. And I think Putin feels that fear. Maybe he overestimates the situation because he feels overly powerful.

    If Russia and Ukraine go at war (we will find that out very soon), the UN has to involve. If they would't, they would be breaking their own rules. So the only way they are going to stay out of a war is by neglecting one of the corner stones this organization was built on: an attack on one member counts as an attack on all of us.
     
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  5. Dram

    Dram the Dunmer

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    Many people think that. For one because we are that post-war generation that just can't imagine what a world war would be like. It's not something our minds can grasp.

    Maybe the world learned its lesson. But Russia apparently didn't. They take in a region without having any valid reasons for it and threaten Ukraine to send troops if they fight back. They are making it impossible for Ukraine NOT to go at war. They are the ones doing this. And the world can do two things. They can either look the other way or fight back.

    The world has learned its lesson. But it will have to defend itself. And the UN can't neglect Ukraine for that would be hypocrisy and the UN would lose a lot of credibility and respect.
     
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  6. AS88

    AS88 Well-Known Member
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  7. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Haha, Kim Jong.. I remember him. :rolleyes:
    But that was a different story, though. What's going on between Ukraine and Russia is differs from the North-Korea crisis on many aspects. The fact that one conflict ended well doesn't mean this one will.

    Like I said: If Putin keeps his word, he will go to war with Ukraine. And if the UN plays the game by the rules, they will step in. It's going to be a bit difficult to solve this, methinks.
     
  8. AS88

    AS88 Well-Known Member
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    North Korea's behaviour could have an effect on this situation, though. We know Kim Jong-Un is crazy, and N Korea and Russia have a lot of links and seem to agree on certain issues.

    http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2014/02/18/2014021801859.html

    Russia's military prowess isn't what it used to be, but the west is concerned about the relationship between Russia, N Korea and China, and how secretive and private they are on certain issues including human rights and military funding and operations.

    I don't think there will be a WWIII, mostly because all the parties have so much to lose if one country was to press the big red button labelled 'nukes.' The world is a much more connected place than it used to be, and large-scale warfare between major powers would be devastating on everyone involved, including the country deemed to 'win.'
     
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  9. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    There can be a world war without nukes, though. Maybe they wouldn't cross that line. And as far as North-Korea, Russia and China goes: they don't seem to be acting very rational. I can't say I expect very good decisions from them. At least not in the state they are in at the moment.

    I don't know about North-Korea (didn't even know they were involved in this conflict until you mentioned it), but I do know China did an attempt to distance themselves. They were supporting Russia, until the Crimea crisis got out of control. That's when they pulled their hands off of it. I think China is still hoovering between Russia, the rest of the world or perhaps just neutrality.
     
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  10. Seanu Reaves

    Seanu Reaves The Shogun of Gaming

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    (Marking this thread to be in what little I know)
     
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  11. Monolith

    Monolith The Progeny of Vikings

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    Those were actually Putin's ex military adviser's words, not those of Putin himself; in his opinion Putin's long term agenda is the restoration of lost Soviet territory and the resurrection of the old, glorious Russian Empire. He speculated that the expanded territory would encompass the whole of Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic countries and Finland, even though Finland was never a part of the Soviet Union to begin with. We successfully fought off the Soviets twice during WW2 and taught them not to fl*ff with us, a lesson I'm sure Putin remembers. We may be a sparsely populated country, but our entire military strength is geared towards defending our eastern border from an incursion. To put it plainly, it would bankrupt Russia's economy if Putin tried to invade, so I cannot see him actually making the attempt. If he put the entire Red Army to the task of conquering us he could of course do it (hell, he could probably steamroll all the way to Germany and beyond), but in the process he would lose far more than he would gain. That, and if Russia made threatening gestures towards us, I'm 100% certain beyond a shadow of a doubt that we would immediately join NATO. Then Putin would have to nuke us if he wanted to beat us into submission, and it goes without saying he wouldn't fire a nuke into a country that sits right on the border of his own home. Or anywhere else for that matter. He's not stupid. Greedy, imperialistic and ruthless, yes, but not stupid.

    Regarding the crisis in Ukraine, it is my understanding that these paramilitary pro-russian groups in Eastern Ukraine that have been stirring up trouble are backed (and maybe even organized) from Moscow. It is most likely a deliberate attempt to gain a pretext for sending the Russian military en masse across the border. I wouldn't be surprised if that were to happen, but in the near future the fighting will likely be contained to the Russian-Ukrainian border. Putin's long term agenda in Ukraine may be to destabilize the country to the point of collapse so he can step in and implant his own puppet master regime, or maybe even annex bigger chunks of the nation under his own flag. However, I doubt he would have the resources, or even the motivation, to invade the entire country at present, let alone any other countries.
     
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  12. Seanu Reaves

    Seanu Reaves The Shogun of Gaming

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    Even if a world war breaks out, there is a certain hesitance to use the Nuclear bomb in general it is crossing the line beyond regular warfare.

    As for the Rusiian empire is just part of their culture, similar to how American's think they are the Beacon of Freedom, or China is "The Rightful Rulers of the World." Now is this a justification? Not at all. As for invading Finland I don't know enough about the culture and area asides from Skiing soldiers and the deadliest sniper/ soldier.

    The funny thing is we don't hear much about the countries that are willing to join Russia and the Eurasian Union. Now assuming Putin is very much that Bond Villain and has to keep expanding. I agree with Mono why would he attempt total war? Definitely much easier ways to get Russia back to the "top" with the other prime western states.
     
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  13. DrunkenMage

    DrunkenMage Intoxicated Arch-Mage

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    Doubt we'd step in, Russia doesn't give a plops and we're just bluffing about tougher actions. Russia supplies a good chunk of oil into Europe and the West doesn't mess with Nuclear armed nations.

    We all got broke from the War on Terror, so we can't really pay for a war against Russia. That and China tends to back Russia, so no way we'd go near that.
     
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  14. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    True, all true.
    But Russia needs Europe just as much as Europe needs them. They may have a gas supply some countries depend on, but we have many important resources they don't have. Breaking with Europe would harm them as well.

    I think the world is going to apply the appeasement policy again. That was a strategy right before WWII when countries were allowing Hitler to expand his territory, simply because going against him would increase the risk of another war. But eventually they had to step in. And I think that will happen here too. They will threaten and a lot of those threats will be empty and mere bluffing. But eventually they are going to step in.
     
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  15. Clau

    Clau The Fateless One

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    Speaking of Gas, China is pursuing its economic interest despite the tension of war growing more strenuous. Political newspapers and Beijing side news are criticizing the response of former PM adviser, Taras Berezovets, about Ukraine asking assistance from NATO in military logistic needs. Yet, officials and propaganda machines are not criticizing Russia's aggression within Crimea.

    News broke out this afternoon that officials from Beijing are finalizing with agreements with Moscow officials for a joint energy projects within the Crimean region. Then it hit me that Chinese interest has always been present within Ukraine, starting with the former Yanukovych government striking an economic food production pact with the Chinese. Maybe Russia's entry within the region gives more opportunity for China to pursue its economic expansion given such force of backing.
     
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  16. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Am I the only one who is sincerely concerned about this?

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  17. AS88

    AS88 Well-Known Member
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  18. Anouck

    Anouck Queen of Procrastination

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    Yeah, this doesn't look good....

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  19. AS88

    AS88 Well-Known Member
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    *Begins growing crops for sustenance*

    :p
     
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  20. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Endowed Member

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    Wow Anouck, you have assembled an informed party of people from all over the world! I personally do not know so much about the conflict but find it interesting. The idea of nuclear weapons even being mentioned is a pretty horrifying idea, but I just hope that it NEVER comes to that. No country deserves that kind of threat or retaliation tactic.

    You guys could start a counter intel agency and work to dismantle the Russian regime from the inside-out from the looks... I'm happy to be a lowly Field Op if you need one :cool:
     
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