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NASA/Orbital Sciences : "You see... what had happened was..."

Discussion in 'The Lobby' started by raido KASAI, Oct 29, 2014.

  1. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    #1 raido KASAI, Oct 29, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2014
  2. ecozombie

    ecozombie Loki

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    Wow. Wonder what caused that?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  3. Mighty Pecan Pie

    Mighty Pecan Pie The secret American

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    When was this? I immediately have to think about the Challenger that exploded..
     
  4. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    It happened yesterday actually. It's one of 2 private firms NASA subcontracts with to deliver ISS supplies, the other being Elon Musk's SpaceX.

    I'm no expert by any means, although I do play one online... but if you look closely about halfway up the rocket seconds after takeoff, it appears there is some leak on the left side. Possibly a fuel leak maybe that ignited?

    They had to scrub the launch the night before because there was a ship that wandered into the "risk area"
     
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  5. JoeReese

    JoeReese Well-Known Member

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    I was reading about this today. They're saying, when they realized it was coming back down, they self-destructed to keep it from heading into populated areas.

    In related, sad, news...Virgin Galactic's space plane blew up, killing one pilot and seriously injuring the other, over the Mojave. They had just switched to a new, high-performance fuel, before this test flight.

    http://www.virgingalactic.com/
     
  6. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    Two in a week. Both technically private enterprise too. Not surprising really. NASA's early attempts at it weren't all that successful at the start.

    The Virgin one is more tragic where there was life lost, but such is how we learn sometimes.

    The destruct button is not something you ever want to have to use, but it is a necessity in that line of work. That rocket goes into a populated area, then you are talking mass casualties.

    In hindsight, maybe the flash paper lined fuel tanks was a bad idea
     
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  7. JoeReese

    JoeReese Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I hope it doesn't kill the programs, especially Virgin Galactic. As far as the private contractor rockets, I can't imagine us not paying more than we would if NASA just did its own damn job.
     
  8. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    I doubt it will kill either program but it may deter other less-funded groups from jumping in. Both firms are well funded enterprises and it's not all that likely that a setback like these two would make either gut the program and declare all those resources, time and dollars spent in getting to this point a complete waste, even if it were the case for any of those firms that scrapping it would be the best operational decision. Jobs at the top get lost over decisions like that.

    I tend to think that given enough time, the private sector could probably do a better and cheaper job than a government agency as in most things, that is in fact the case, but the main issue I have with NASA and the private rockets is that we scrapped our working systems completely and instead decided to rely entirely upon untested upstarts who are still just finding their way through the process for the first time.

    We shouldn't scrap something before what we are replacing it with is reliable. Accidents happen even with proven organizations and equipment, but those are multiplied exponentially during the early research and testing phases of these programs
     
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  9. norsewarlord

    norsewarlord Member

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    Politics is ruining NASA but without oversight the private space industry has huge potential for corruption, cronyism, and exploitation of celestial objects and resources, personnel, governments, tax dollars, and publicly owned property.
     
  10. norsewarlord

    norsewarlord Member

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    Can someone give me one more like so I can post a very thorough and detailed link explaining the current SN and VG space programs and their difficulties as well as this crash from just a few days ago.
     
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  11. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    If the free market is allowed to operate (which it's no longer allowed to do so in most cases), the best oversight possible is risk of complete loss of investment and a poorly ran company going under. Sadly, we don't seem to allow the market to utilize failure any more as regulatory mechanism. Now if someone big makes catastrophic business decisions, the government just bails them out because they are "too big to fail." That's a load of horse manure. If you make bad business decisions, you go out of business. That's how the system is designed to itself.

    If allowed to function as designed, there is far more accountability in the private sector versus the public sector. In the private sector, ultimately you are using your own money and not someone else's.

    That's not to say that some level of regulation is useful, in fact it is. There have to be some basic levels of safety restrictions, quality controls and such. It's highly unlikely that this industry as a whole will not have a good deal of that. Look how heavily regulated the various transportation industries are already so, like the automotive industry and the airlines. The problem with the government essentially running everything completely is that the government has no incentive mechanism that rewards success and punishes failure.

    Hell, the federal government loses money operating a horse track and a brothel. How is that even possible?
     
    #11 raido KASAI, Nov 1, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  12. norsewarlord

    norsewarlord Member

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  13. norsewarlord

    norsewarlord Member

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    The problem is not enough regulation yet also too much regulation. This is caused by big businesses spending million on lobbying and payoffs to get just the exact legislation they want. True classical Liberalism would be nicer than what we have right now but it is not the most perfect political philosophy although to describe anything as perfect is probably a fallacy. I tend to favor mixed economies and a mixture of socialism and libertarianism.
     
  14. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    Both links are good reads and have something to them.

    I do think though that the idea that a $10 million dollar prize was going to be the catalyst to a new birth of space technology. For serious inroads to be made there has to be some easily discernible return on investment. Spending $25 million for a chance at winning $10 million is not a good business decision, it's a hobby by an eccentric that wanted to do something people thought couldn't be done.

    I think the comparisons with NASA Apollo program are apples and oranges. Sure there are some similarities and contrasts that are valid considerations, but the route private business will have to go to achieve the space flight being viable goal is considerably different in that it is highly unlikely that any one company is going to complete that developmental journey on there own. NASA could do what it did because cost of doing business isn't a game-breaker. Odds are the journey the private company route will be one of the first company advancing the ball up to a given point, the next coming in and taking what they did a little further, and then a multitude of other baby steps taken by a myriad of other firms.

    As the ball gets further down the field, the potential for market returns will grow somewhat as the cost of success will be lowered because much research has already been bought and paid for. At some point, the projected market for a successful endeavor will look less and less like a mirage and more like a reality and then you will see more people jump in to the game.

    IBM had similar ups and downs in their production of the PC. Ultimately their idea and initial success made it possible for other companies to make big bucks but as time has played out for themselves, IBM gas pretty much disappeared from the industry they started.
     
  15. JoeReese

    JoeReese Well-Known Member

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    I don't doubt you there, especially about private industry inevitably being more efficient than government...except when they're billing government. Then, for some reason, they seem to be just as fouled up as government ever could be.
     
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  16. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    The problem that we have today is that we try to take a top-down approach to guaranteeing success by elimination of the risk of failure, that can't be done in a system which people like to think of as a free market. A truly free system has 1 single control mechanism at it's disposal and that is a company that makes bad decisions fails and goes away. Nationalizing losses and only makes "private" companies keep doing riskier behavior because in the end they will never suffer anything negative that may be a result of bad business behavior.

    Failure is the economic equivalent of a forest fire for nature. Without either, the system gets so cluttered in overgrowth that nothing new will survive. It just gets choked out and the system becomes stagnant.
     
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  17. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    I agree that this particular result is true all too often, but I'd pin the blame for it on the system the government has in place more than I would on the individual players forced to operate in that system. If some crazy old man in the neighborhood keeps giving alcohol and drugs free to the kids in the neighborhood, the cause of the problem isn't that there are kids living in the neighborhood.

    I have the same argument for why I don't blame baseball players for having taken steroids when the powers in baseball set up such a system that encouraged and rewarded that behavior. Now if I was playing and wanted to compete with known takers, I'd either have to take too or look for a different livelihood.
     
    #17 raido KASAI, Nov 1, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  18. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    If the government wasn't allowed to pick winners and losers then lobbying dollars and payoffs would have no purpose.
     
  19. JoeReese

    JoeReese Well-Known Member

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    Makes sense. I just feel like, regardless of who is to blame, we're the ones taking it hard and dry, every time.
     
  20. raido KASAI

    raido KASAI Ansei Master Badass

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    yep, the old in-out in-out
     

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