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not necessarily, broken steel from fallout 3 was an expansion of part of the main story of the original story, so it could well be a thalmor expansion! although in broken steel there wasnt much in the way of new land in the dlc so i hope whatever comes next is more along the lines of say...
Id say the 3rd DLC will come out round november, and will be a large expansion along the lines of the shivering isles so im thinking a new land to explore. I think its more likely something like this because they released the shivering isles almost exactly a year after the original oblivion game...